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West Ham v Fulham
Kick Off: Tuesday 14th January at 19:30
Competition: Premier League
Graham Potter takes charge of his first Premier League match as West Ham United manager on Tuesday night when Fulham are the visitors to the London Stadium.
Fulham are going well this term and will want to win here while Potter will hope for the first three points of his Hammers tenure.
West Ham v Fulham Best Bet
West Ham will be motivated to pick up a win in their first home game under Graham Potter, but they are running short of options in the attacking area of the pitch and that could well be music to the ears of Fulham. The Cottagers have only lost 1 of their last 13 matches in all competitions and their only away losses have come at Old Trafford and the Etihad Stadium.
Fulham average 1.39 xG per match and against a side who concede 2.2 goals at home that bodes well. Only six teams have a better xGA figure than Fulham too while West Ham are the 4th worst team in the league in this regard.
If there is a winner here it looks likely to be the Cottagers, but a price of 1.73 to be covered by the draw looks very appealing.
West Ham v Fulham #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
Statistically this season, this What Odds Paddy bet has every chance of landing. Whether those statistics are relevant still now that West Ham have switched managers is probably a fair question but there is enough to suggest that the game state will see the Cottagers on the front foot and the Hammers playing on the counter.
West Ham are without Jarrod Bowen, Michail Antonio and Niklas Fullkrug and could be missing Crysensio Summerville so that is a large attacking threat they are without, which will allow Fulham to get their full-backs overlapping without too much concern for what is going the other way.
Fulham are a side who like to have the ball and create chances and a lot of those chances come from wide areas. No team in the Premier League has more accurate crosses than Fulham and close-in chances can often lead to shots on target.
Fulham average 4.9 shots on target per match in the Premier League this season while West Ham average just 4.4 but with so many attackers missing it should be Fulham on the front foot and threatening the goal more here.
With that in mind, and certainly the way that West Ham set up in the FA Cup on Friday night, the Hammers are likely to try and play on the counter while they wait for attacking personnel to come back and that could well lead to them committing the most fouls in each half.
West Ham sit seventh in the league in fouls committed whereas Fulham concede the fourth least and with a lower attacking threat coming their way the visitors are unlikely to get stretched and have to commit fouls here.
West Ham have serial foul committers in Lucas Paqueta and Mohammed Kudus while Vladimir Coufal is another who could feature.
Just on the expected balance of play, Fulham to have the most shots on target in each half and West Ham to commit the most fouls in each half feels like it has plenty of potential to land.
West Ham v Fulham Predicted XI
West Ham v Fulham Players to Watch
Raul Jimenez
The leading light for Fulham this season in terms of goals scored and shots on target is the Mexican striker Raul Jimenez and the 1.44 on him to have a shot on target here feels big. West Ham defenders have struggled with attacking movement this season and Jimenez offers plenty of that.
He is on penalties and he is a threat in the air as well. It is hard to see him not adding to his 1.5 shots on target per 90 average here.
Harry Wilson
Another bright spot for Fulham in recent times has been Harry Wilson and the 1.80 that he has a shot on target looks big too. He averages 1.2 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League this term and averages a goal every 121 minutes as well so he is a key part of the Fulham attacking threat.
West Ham utilised a youth player at left-back in the cup on Friday night which will encourage Wilson and he can be expected to have a shot on target.
Lucas Paqueta
It was noticeable in the cup loss at Aston Villa on Friday night how Lucas Paqueta was getting forward at every opportunity and from the left side which is probably the weakest side of the pitch for Fulham defensively the Brazil international could have some joy.
He is likely to be a penalty taker and on set plays around the box but we saw on Friday he can hit the target from open play too. The 2.2 on him hitting the target for a second straight game feels big.
West Ham v Fulham Cheat Sheet
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West Ham v Fulham Form and Tactics
It is harder to judge West Ham tactically given that this will be the first game in charge for Graham Potter.
We can expect them to have more possession than the 46.7% that they averaged under Julen Lopetegui. That is lower than the 52.3% that Fulham average.
Fulham sit in the top 10 in the Premier League for shots on target per match and only four teams have missed fewer big chances than them so when they create a chance they are generally clinical with it.
West Ham are the next worst at big chances missed so they too are clinical.
West Ham are seventh in the league for fouls per match with 11.7 on average per game.
Only three teams concede fewer fouls than the 10.8 per match that Fulham average although Fulham have picked up 47 yellow cards and two reds this season. West Ham have 45 and two.
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West Ham v Fulham Ref Watch
- Referee: Craig Pawson
- He has taken charge of 12 Premier League games this season, showing 52 yellow cards and two red cards
- He has refereed West Ham once this term but this will be the first time he takes charge of a Fulham match.
- Pawson averages 0.25 penalties per game in the Premier League this season.
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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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