This is a situation in which the league table can very much give a misleading interpretation as towards the most likely result in this particular fixture.

The whole EFL fixture list is an interesting one this week as almost every team is either going back home after two consecutive aways or going back on the road after enjoying home comforts, and that is indeed the situation here, and that fact applies a really good dynamic for our bet.

QPR may not be as defensively robust as they were under Martí Cifuentes last season, and are missing a defensive lynchpin in Steve Cook, but they have recently improved their home form massively. They have won three in a row at Loftus Road, conceding only once in that sequence against Norwich, Oxford, and Preston.

Watford have been poor all season away from Vicarage Road, losing seven of their 11 away matches in the league. This includes one win in their last 11 away matches in all competitions, in which the only draws were at Hull and Plymouth, two teams fighting against relegation. The massive standout result being the 6-2 win at Hillsborough, which was freakish in its nature.

Obviously, the fact that Watford still come into this match very much in the play-off picture means that they have been very reliant on their home form. However, they fell to a poor defeat at home to Cardiff last time out, generating only 0.66 xG across their nine shots that day, which does not constitute the type of play required to get a win here.

A late Brenden Aaronson winner gave Leeds back-to-back festive away wins, and the element of rotation that Daniel Farke was able to do, and still record maximum points will be extra pleasing for the manager and puts them in a great position ahead of this return to Elland Road.

Leeds have been formidable at home in this campaign. The early shake on the opening day against Portsmouth is, in retrospect, exactly what they needed. Since that 3-3 draw, Leeds have recorded 10 wins, and 9 of them have been by margins wider than a single goal.

One of the big pulls for this particular bet is that Blackburn looked to be a tiring side against Hull on Sunday, and also have to prepare themselves for the East Lancashire derby on the 4th of January, which will take precedence in their supporters’ minds. Talk has already begun in the fanbase of encouraging mass rotation for this match against Leeds in order for the key players to be fully ready for the Burnley match at home after this one.

Whether this is something that John Eustace will consider in reality is unknown, but either he will have a team of players who are probably fairly tired from their fruitless Xmas exertions, or a rotated team that isn’t as strong as their usual XI, both of which would favour Leeds United.

There is also the small matter of Leeds continuing to top the rankings in both xGF and xGA across the season, as well as now also being top of the league in terms of actual points won as well. This could be a task too far even for Eustace’s well-organised team to combat.

This League One top-seven battle is an attractive looking contest on the New Years’ Day card and it promises to be a tight affair. Barnsley are considered pre-match favourites based on the odds but a strong case can be easily made for Wrexham to avoid defeat here. The main standout reason is because of Barnsley’s poor home record. It is ranked 21st in the division and only twice out of 11 home league battles have they emerged with 3 points. This is a side that enjoys it on the road and cannot seem to settle under the pressure of playing at Oakwell.

Some will highlight towards Wrexham perhaps not being the best away from home, however, there is no denying they are somewhat stubborn opponents. Their League One away fixtures have only averaged 1.60 goals, so they know how to turn games into a scrap. Doing so suits them much better than Barnsley, who love it much more on the road where games become more stretched. That won’t be the case here.

Phil Parkinson’s side, who are second in the table, have the joint-strongest defensive record along with top team Birmingham in League One. This further highlights how awkward of an opponent they can be. The Tykes clearly have issues getting one over the top clubs in the division as they are winless in all 6 season meetings with current top-six clubs (drawn 3, lost 3).

On Sunday, neither Wigan or Huddersfield got the results they desired. Wednesday’s home side conceded late to lose at Wrexham, which is no disgrace. However, it ultimately would’ve hurt them losing in the fashion, whereas The Terriers could only draw at home to lowly Burton Albion. They required a late equaliser to save their blushes but they at least avoided defeat. It actually extended their unbeaten league run to 13, so they are clearly doing something right. Despite not always being their best, Michael Duff’s side have developed a handy habit of simply finding a way.

Wigan’s main issue is how unpredictable they are. They remain more than capable of beating any side on their day, yet the complete opposite could also be said! There has been one constant about them this season. Athletic have failed to beat any current top-six team this season in 6 attempts, failing to score in 4 of them. Shan Maloney’s side have won only 3 home league encounters as well, but all came versus opponents currently positioned 18th or below. It would appear they have their work cut out when play-off contenders Huddersfield come to town.

Duff’s men have recorded 2 or more goals scored in 4 straight away league matches. Considering Wigan are an outfit that are averaging only 0.90 goals scored per home league contest, then it suggests problems could await them in this particular match. The Latics have failed to score in half of those home games, too, so they could well need to net at least twice to stand a chance of avoiding defeat. That has only happened 30% of the time at home in the league.

Accrington open up market favourites for the New Years Day clash with Grimsby and the prices feel off.

Accrington are 22nd in the table and come into the fixture off the back of a defeat to relegation rivals Carlisle. Grimsby are 5th in the table and beat promotion rivals Port Vale 3-0 on Sunday.

Accrington are 22nd in the home league table with just 2 home wins in 11 matches. Grimsby are 4th in the away league table with 7 wins or draws in 11 matches.

In the 5 game form table Accrington are bottom with 1 point from a possible 15 – they’ve not won in their last 8 matches. Grimsby are 8th in the 5 game form table with 3 wins and 2 defeats.

The 2 teams met in Grimsby on 3rd December. Grimsby were 4-0 up inside 35 minutes and ran out 5-2 winners. They created 2.14xG and gave up 0.47xG.

Grimsby to win at 2.9, draw no bet at 2.1 and double chance at 1.57 all feel of enormous value.

They may still be 4th in the table but Port Vale haven’t won in their last 8 League Two matches and have a vulnerable look to them currently, as evidenced by Sunday’s 3-0 defeat to Grimsby.

Vale have already played Cheltenham during the winless run – on the 3rd December when a injury time Ronan Curtis goal rescued a point after Vale had been the weaker team during the contest.

On average Port Vale concede just 1.04 goals per game and 1 goal per game at home. The average is on the rise though and they’ve conceded 5 goals in 2 matches this side of Christmas.

Cheltenham rarely don’t score. They average 1.48 goals per game in League Two this season. 1.5 goals per game when they are the away side.

Cheltenham have scored in all 10 of their away league matches so far this season and in 21/23 matches overall.

Cheltenham have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches against Doncaster, Morecambe, Gillingham, Crewe and Notts County – 3 of those teams are inside the Top 7, they won’t fear going to Port Vale.