It was a disappointing result for Sunderland on Saturday as they dropped points at home to Watford, despite being generally dominant, taking the lead, and creating almost 3 xG in the match.

However, all of the extraneous performance-related data is pointing towards Sunderland still being one of the elite teams in this division. Indeed, their xG difference over the last 10 league matches averages out to a +0.8 xG differential in Sunderland’s favour, which is as strong as it has been at any point during the season.

Sunderland also remain unbeaten at home in the league, though it is also fair that too many draws, 6 in their last 11, have crept into their record. However, Luton have been very poor in general, but especially away from home.

Luton’s 1-1 draw with Sheffield Wednesday in their last Championship away game could be described as fortunate. They lost the xG battle in that match very handsomely, by over 2 xG, and that made their average xG differential over their last 10 Championship away games -1.0 exactly. Losing a goal’s worth of chances to their opponents in their away games is a big gap to close, especially when going to one of the toughest venues in the league.

There may well be some residual new manager bounce in this price with Matt Bloomfield having taken over from Rob Edwards recently, but otherwise, it is difficult to side with Luton in any form here considering how poor their performances have been on the road.

Swansea managed to produce a result that certainly preserved some peace around Luke Williams’ job for the moment. However, this now has to be followed up with a positive result at home, where the baying for blood has been strongest amongst the home fans.

The Swans have a very mediocre home record, only winning 5 of their 15 league matches at the Swansea.com Stadium. Indeed, this is the 4th worst home record in the league as things stand, whilst Wednesday possess the 5th best away record with 6 wins and 20 points in their 15 away matches.

Therefore, the draw-no-bet line, which has Swansea as marginal favourites due to the home advantage that is baked into the bookmaker models, is probably giving too much of an edge to the Swans in this case. They had lost 5 in a row before meeting Bristol City, including home defeats to Sheffield United and Coventry.

Wednesday probably felt as though they had snatched a draw at the Hawthorns last time out until Jayson Molumby’s 97th-minute winner, it was a very even game at a better team than Swansea. Before that, Danny Rohl’s men had much the better of the game against Luton and only managed a draw, and they beat QPR at Loftus Road fairly convincingly. Rohl has been quite consistent in his team selection, and whilst he definitely would’ve preferred greater backing in the transfer market in January, he is doing an excellent job with the players that he has.

Other than going away to Leeds, which we know is a pretty difficult task this season, Wednesday are in every match that they play, and their form should have them as slight favourites here rather than slight underdogs.

It has all gone on at Ewood Park since their last league match. Manager John Eustace looks to be imminently announced as the manager of a divisional rival at the opposite end of the table, and what does this indicate about the state of the club that currently occupy a play-off place?

At the moment, there are lots of holes to poke in Blackburn’s form, even without Eustace leaving the dugout. The injury list hasn’t helped Rovers, and they remain in games well even despite that, but the wins, and particularly the goals, have been tough to come by.

Whilst Tony Mowbray can little credit for this, West Brom have only conceded 9 goals in 15 matches at home so far this season, and Rovers are going to come into this match concerned that they have dropped off in terms of creating chances in recent weeks.

Rovers have only created over 2 xG in an away game once in the last 10 that they have played in the Championship, a 3-1 win at Cardiff in early November. Whereas, West Brom have cleared 2 xG in 5 of their last 10 at home. The Baggies will also be buoyed by that late, late show to snatch the 3 points against Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday.

West Brom have lost only once at home in the Championship all season, and playing host to a vulnerable Blackburn with interim managers, who haven’t won in 5 away league matches, it is a fair surprise that the Baggies aren’t a bit shorter in the 1X2 market.