This match is going to be used in a lot of home banker accumulators this Saturday and as a result the price will move towards Bradford.

The Bantams have timed a run well to get themselves into the wide open promotion shake-up. They lost away at Wimbledon last week, but that is 1 of the toughest fixtures in League Two, returning to Valley Parade should work in Bradford’s favour.

They have won their last 6 League Two fixtures at home, and the prices indicate that there is some wriggle room in their current price for this match. Harrogate are 1 of the poorest League Two sides away from home, with only 13 points from 15 matches, losing 5 of their last 7.

1 of those 5 was away at Doncaster recently, in which the home side went off at 1.45. Doncaster and Bradford would be rated roughly similarly at this stage, so this is the sort of price 1 might expect Bradford to go off. Barrow went off 1.55 recently, Fleetwood were 1.6, and both of these teams are below Bradford in the league.

The FA Cup is always an interesting competition to analyse from a value perspective, and has granted this column some nice winners already this season.

This feels a bit like an obvious pick, but there are reasons to believe that Saints will be shorter than their current price by the time kick-off rolls around on Saturday.

Firstly, this is a Saints side that is coming into this tie off the back of a morale0boosting league win, only their 2nd of the season. Although they may be bottom of the league, with very little chance of survival, that victory gives them the shot of adrenaline that will have had spirits up around the training ground this week.

Given the squad building in the January window, Ivan Juric now seems to have a better balanced team to fit his needs. The team certainly looked more fit for purpose at Ipswich, and although there will be some rotation here, Burnley are also likely to rotate to a degree as well.

Scott Parker has a middling record in the FA Cup, and it isn’t a competition that takes priority for Burnley this season. They are embroiled in the promotion race, and they were fortunate to scrape past Reading in the last round via extra time.

From a price perspective, Southampton were at home to Championship opposition in the 3rd round and went off 1.57 against Swansea. However, there are caveats to apply to this price, Saints were in the midst of a series of defeats in the Premier League, and, at the time, Swansea were in a decent, top-half position and their subsequent poor form was yet to arrive.

Burnley may well be unbeaten in 18 matches in all competitions, but they have failed to score in 7 of those matches. Their xG total is, amazingly, 20th in the Championship, and, as bad as Southampton’s defence has looked in the Premier League, they would still be a top Championship defence at worst.

Given Burnley’s poor chance creation, it could well be the case that Southampton only have to score once to win the tie, and when the market comes to analyse this match in depth it would be surprising if the market didn’t move towards Saints.

Grimsby are pretty unpredictable as a team, won 13, lost 13, only 3 draws, but they should be shorter here against bottom of the table Carlisle.

The market is constantly expecting Carlisle to pick up. At first, there seemed some logic to it, a team that was in League One last season, with a well respected manager in Paul Simpson, should’ve been able to find their feet eventually.

Then when making a change and appointing Mike Williamson, a man whose football the market has always respected at Gateshead and MK Dons, that gave the market some confidence in the Cumbrians.

Then when buying players all through January that more suited Williamson’s style, and picking up a good win at Fleetwood recently, there was again market confidence. But now Williamson has been sacked, at the worst possible time after being given the whole window, and there is no evidence whatsoever of an improvement on the pitch.

That victory at Fleetwood is Carlisle’s only 1 amongst 5 defeats, and they were smashed by Swindon 5-1 at home last time out.

Grimsby’s current price is 1.95, they went off at 2.15 against Gillingham at home last time. Gillingham have problems of their own, but they are much better than Carlisle. Again, the confidence in pricing of Carlisle seems to be showing itself.

Grimsby went off 1.75 against Harrogate in gameweek 22, a team that has more away points than Carlisle, and Grimsby won that match.

Also, Carlisle were 4.50 at Fleetwood recently, they are currently only 3.75 here, despite Grimsby being comfortably above Fleetwood in the table. Part of this will have been Fleetwood’s recent pick-up in form and Grimsby’s sub-par performance data, but regardless, the gap seems too big.