There hasn’t been an obvious new manager bounce for Gillingham after replacing Mark Bonner with John Coleman. Gills are on a six-match winless run in League Two, with two recent home defeats to Bromley and Doncaster Rovers not exactly inspiring confidence at the Priestfield Stadium.

Into this situation come the visitors of Notts County. In many performance metrics County have cause to suggest that they are one of the best teams in the league. The Magpies are second to Walsall in expected goals, and shots on target, whilst having the highest number of big chances as well.

Their defensive stats aren’t as strong, but they are improving. County’s xGA has moved from midtable into a top 8 position, which, when combined with their attacking data, makes them a difficult opponent for Gillingham.

However, and this is the key evidence for suspecting a potential price move, Gillingham were 3.1 at kick-off vs Doncaster, they are currently 2.88. County are 2.37, Bromley were 2.45. Notts County are significantly better than Bromley on most measures, and one could reasonably expect them to be priced more around 2.0-2.1 by kick-off, especially if they beat Carlisle comfortably on Tuesday evening.

Huddersfield have managed to compile one of the strongest squads that we have seen in League One. There is genuine strength in depth across the squad and they have a huge target in the form of Wycombe who currently occupy the second automatic promotion spot behind Birmingham. This should provide plenty of motivation for the remainder of the season for the Terriers.

As far as this particular match is concerned, there are reasons to expect a movement towards Huddersfield in the market. They are currently 1.8 to go to Northampton and win. They were 1.55 when they went away to Crawley, who are a position below Northampton, back on round 15.

Huddersfield have recently beaten Cambridge 4-0 away, as well as Wycombe 1-0, and whilst they could only draw with Blackpool 2-2 in their last away match, they were able to come back from 2-0 down in that match.

Northampton have tightened their tactics recently under threat of relegation. Neither team has scored more than once in any of their last five league matches. However, they have only won one home league match in their last seven, which was against out-of-form Peterborough, and they lost to Lincoln last time out.

Lincoln were 1.83 at kick-off that day, only a click away from Huddersfield’s current price. Stevenage, who drew 0-0 in Northampton’s previous home match to that, were 1.8 at kick-off. These matches provide the biggest evidence of a potential price move for Huddersfield, as the Terriers are surely rated better than Lincoln or Stevenage, and the lack of improved Northampton form doesn’t suggest that there should be a move towards them, so Huddersfield should go off shorter than current prices.

There are a few factors that play into this bet. Walsall did finally lose their long unbeaten streak away at Bradford last weekend, but, a) that was a tough match with Bradford in form, and b) it is not necessarily a bad thing to face a reality shock at this stage.

Walsall could easily respond to this with renewed focus and vigour, especially at the Bescot, where they have won their last seven league matches, scoring 21 goals along the way.

Salford seem to have suffered adversely from their shellacking at Manchester City in the FA Cup. They have lost both league matches since to bottom half teams in Fleetwood and Cheltenham.

Walsall were 1.85 for their last home match against MK Dons, who, despite their underperforming season, still tend to get generously priced. They were 1.45 vs Tranmere and 1.29 against Newport, also they were 1.75 against Barrow, and 1.85 against Notts County. All those matches were wins for Walsall, and the Notts County price in particular looks relevant given the respective quality of Notts County vs Salford.

Walsall should be going off around 1.8 or lower in this match judging by this analysis. There is also the reputation, deserved or otherwise, that Karl Robinson is something of a ‘streaky’ manager, if this is the case then Salford. The truth of this doesn’t necessarily matter, the reputation itself is enough to potentially have an effect on the prices.