We hit this exact bet on Daniels last week, and I love trusting the rookie quarterback in an ever better matchup. The Saints have been one of the worst teams in football over the second half of the season, and the commanders come in as 7.5-point favorites. We are likely to see them continue to rely on the rushing game, and Daniels appears to be fully healthy.

Washington went on a bad run during the middle of the season but the silver lining is Daniels finally looked 100% in his last start against the Titans. He now has a bye week to rest even more, so I have all the confidence in the world that Daniels is the healthiest he’s been since Week 1. When looking at his production on the ground, it’s already elite. Daniels currently leads the NFL in QB scrambles, with 54 on the season.

The Saints defense has really struggled against opposing quarterbacks in the rushing game. They are bottom 5 against rushing QB’s in DVOA, EPA/per play, and touchdowns allowed. Looking at the Washington offense they are now missing receiver Noah Brown. They really don’t have the talent to replace him and will have to play more 12 personnel with two TE sets. These personnel groupings are fantastic for rushing, and I think Washington will rely heavily on the ground game with the lack of depth in their receiver room.

Higgins has the rare combination of size and speed that you really want in a red zone target. Obviously you ideally want a big-bodied receiver that can go up and grab those 50/50 balls, and at 6’4 Higgins is absolutely that guy on this team. In addition to that you would also want to have a receiver that has the ability to run deep routes and separate down the field, which Higgins has made a career of. Huge receivers that can win both inside and outside the redzone are fantastic for touchdowns, and Higgins fits the bill perfectly. The Titans are bottom 10 in explosive plays allowed over the last 5 weeks and have shown some weakness in what has overall been a solid season.

Higgins has found the end zone in three of his last four games and gets a Titans red zone defense that ranks bottom 12. If your head is in the sand, one of the biggest narratives coming into the week was the lack of usage with Higgins last week. While Chase dominated, this coaching staff knows they need to keep both high end receivers happy, and I think we see Higgins come out with some more scripted touches. While this wouldn’t be the biggest deal in normal situations, the Bengals are not going to make the playoffs and should look to get on good terms with their receiver, who did not sign an extension this offseason and will be hitting the open market.

While this season hasn’t totally gone as expected for the Dolphins, Achane has still been one of the bright lights. He’s one of the few running backs that is arguably just as dangerous through the air as he is on the ground, and we should be in store for a great game against the Texans. Both teams have huge play upside with two of the best receivers in football, and I think we see a good scoring game script with plenty of scoring opportunities

After missing a couple short yardage opportunities last week, Miami Offensive coordinator Frank Smith was asked about making changes in short yardage situations, but Smith defended his running back:

“Yeah, we always have the evaluation of where the guys go but I mean last year De’Von was running a short yardage and I mean (against) Kansas City we had a critical short yardage where we needed 2 (yards) and it wasn’t clean and he was able to punch through and get us what I guess you’d say an ugly 3, a bloody 3. I mean, he was able to do it.”

Achane has 5 touchdowns in his last 5 games, and has the ability to break a big play at any moment. While he started the season slow, teams were stacking the box against him. Now they have to respect a healthy Tua/Tyreek coming off a huge passing game.