While Drake London has been splitting wide receiver #1 duties with Darnell Mooney this season, the quarterback change has shaken that dynamic up a bit. With Kirk Cousins in at quarterback, this team spread the ball around much more with Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McLoud fairly involved, that hasn’t been the case since the switch. Additionally, it doesn’t seem Penix is as keen on checking the ball down to Bijan Robinson, with the dynamic back only recording 8 and 9 receiving yards in his two starts. Rookies tend to lock in on the number one target in their early starts, and that has been the case so far.

Since Michael Penix Jr took over the starting gig, Drake London has posted a 31% and 37% target share. These are elite numbers, and now he gets a fantastic matchup against the Carolina Panthers, who will likely be without their best corner Jaycee Horn. When these two teams matched up earlier in the season, London recorded 10 targets and a touchdown.

Penix missed some throws against the Commanders, including a fade in the end zone to London at the end of the second quarter. While it didn’t connect, it was still a good sign that the rookie was looking for his big-bodied 6’4 receiver in the red zone. The Falcons are fighting for a playoff berth, and the Panthers are fighting for a better draft pick, so we should have plenty of red-zone opportunities in this one.

In games like this that mean almost nothing to both teams involved, you need to find alternate motivations to take advantage of. Coaching staffs talk about it all the time, but getting players contract incentives is common practice for a team like the Titans who are completely out of the running for anything. Tony Pollard needs 83 rushing yards to hit a $250,000 bonus. Pollard can make another $200,000 if he records two rushing touchdowns. Pollard has been the Titans’ workhorse all season long and should continue to dominate backfield touches and record the necessary volume to have a very good shot at these props. Not only do I like Pollard for one touchdown, but you can get 2+ at +475 right now for a nice longshot payout.

I would like Pollard this weekend with or without the contract incentive, which is important because the sportsbooks definitely understand this information and price it in. For Pollard’s specific case, the loss of Tyjae Spears is bigger than people realized. He should easily see 18+ touches, and with Julius Chesnut as the backup, he’s not a real threat to get involved. He faces the HOU Texans in Week 18 who give up 115.8 rush yards against per game this season. Pollard averages 57.6 rushing yards in his last 10 and has had 83+ in 2 of his last 5 games splitting carries, now that he has the backfield to himself and some extra motivation I think we see a huge game.