Monza have been one of, if not the worst offensive team in Serie A since their promotion, and replacing Alessandro Nesta with Salvatore Bocchetti doesn’t seem to have helped a whole lot. They’ve scored the second-fewest goals in Serie A and accumulated the second-fewest expected goals figure – so it is likely not an unsustainable underperformance. This selection has been a winner in each of their last 10 games and in 15 out of their 18 league clashes to date.

Cagliari haven’t been the strongest side defensively but should have more than enough at the back to withstand a double-breach from Monza. This selection has come home in 3 of their last 5 matches despite them having played Inter (most goals scored in Serie A), Atalanta (second-most goals scored in Serie A), and Fiorentina (4th most goals scored in Serie A).

With 2 of the league’s most defensive outfits coming head-to-head, the under-goals market is a no-brainer selection.

Just 33 goals have been scored across Lens’ 15 matches, averaging just 2.2 per game – the lowest of any side in Ligue 1. On just 4 occasions have their games seen more than 2 goals scored, making 4 seem a fairly distant prospect, particularly given their opponents’ ideology.

Toulouse’s matches have seen just 34 goals scored – the second-fewest of any side in Ligue 1, trailing only the aforementioned Lens. Just 1 of their 15 matches have produced over 3.5 goals, their 2-2 draw with Marseille being the outlier, despite the fact no more than 1.8 expected goals were accumulated between the sides on that day.

Since Parma’s promotion, their outlook has been relatively set in stone with their ideology seemingly revolving around attacking intensity, to the detriment of their defensive line. Parma’s league games this season have produced an average of 3.28 goals, with only Atalanta, Inter, and Verona’s games seeing more shots find the back of the net. 16 of their 18 league clashes have produced over 1.5 goals meanwhile all of the last 7 have seen 3 or more scored.

Torino’s games have not been quite as exciting but their average of 2.39 goals scored still affords us significant leeway. Across all competitions, 12 of their 20 matches have yielded 2 or more goals including each of the last 2 so given the nature of their opposition on Sunday, it’d be a real surprise if they didn’t extend this streak.

Lyon have endured a strong first half of the season despite an initial rocky patch which saw them lose their opening 2 matches to nil. Since then, Lyon have been beaten by only PSG and Marseille, going undefeated in the other 13. Across all competitions they’ve claimed victory in 5 of their most recent 6, dropping points only to PSG.

The same can’t be said for Montpellier who find themselves last in Ligue 1 having picked up just 9 points to date. They’ve lost 11 out of their 16 games across all competitions, most recently hitting rock-bottom when getting thrashed 4-0 by 4th-division outfit, Le Puy Foot 43, in what represented the biggest Coupe de France loss by a top-division side to one in the 3rd league or below, in the competition’s history. They also have a 100% loss record away from home this season, having been defeated on all 8 occasions.

With that in mind, the chances of Lyon beating Montpellier by a couple of goals seem pretty high, but this selection allows the hosts a bit more flexibility if they concede from a defensive slip-up.