While everyone saw the Falcons narrowly miss their chance at securing a playoff berth last week, they still have a chance of sneaking in if they take care of business against the Carolina Panthers. They absolutely need to win this game if they want any chance, meaning starters won’t get the chance to rest up. Expecting a full workload, Robinson has seen at least 17 carries in 7 of his last 8 games. He’s one of the highest volume backs in the league, with his 276 carries ranking 5th, and now he gets a fantastic matchup.

CAR ranks 32nd in rush yards allowed a game, 32nd in opponent rushing yards per carry (5.1), and 32nd in rush attempts allowed per game (34.3). Additionally, Bijan Robinson was just snubbed from the Pro Bowl, listed as an alternative with teammate Jesse Bates. While the team is fighting for the postseason, that extra level of motivation in proving the world wrong will be there for Robinson.

Last week Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier carried the ball 16 times combined in the 1st half for 101 yards. While 13 of those rushes were successful, they only had 4 combined carries in the 2nd half, it’s extremely hard to see them making that mistake again. The Panthers have been the biggest run funnel all season long, Washington is a much better unit and they weren’t able to do much, with a more committed gameplan Bijan Robinson should easily clear 98+ rushing yards.

While incentive props are very overrated in the current NFL landscape, this seems like one of those rare spots where Mike Evans has plenty to play for. We saw just one of those a couple of years ago on the Buccs with Gronk, and it’s time for Evans to repeat history and make some money for himself.

The Buccaneers’ star pass catcher Mike Evans is not just 85 receiving yards shy of extending his record for most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to begin a career, he’s also 5 catches and 85 yards away from earning a $3M contract incentive on his 2025 base salary. This is already a dominant receiver averaging 9 targets per game over his last 5 in a fantastic matchup against the Saints, but the added motivation here really makes it worth it.

The biggest problem with this prop is that the Buccaneers still need to win this game to capture the division, so that will be their number one priority before any financial incentive. That being said, they get arguably the worst team in football right now, with the Saints fully in tank mode. Without Alvin Kamara, they are clearly the worst offensive unit in football, and with the Buccaneers likely controlling this game they should feed Mike Evans towards the end of the game. Baker Mayfield has already talked about the importance of getting Evans this record, and I think we see him fed towards the end of this game.

There is a strong possibility that the Packers rest their starters here as early as after a few drives. They rested starters in the second half in a similar situation a few years ago and have said there is value in coming out and playing well but they can’t meaningfully advance their playoff seeding. With a loss they are the 7 seed and with a win they are the 6 seed. Even If they don’t rest their starters, they have gone extremely run-heavy after the bye. Love has 206 or fewer passing yards in 4-of-7 games post bye.

When looking at the young players that would get some additional run, it’s mostly the running back room. We already heard Josh Jacobs say he wasn’t going to carry a heavy workload earlier this week, and it’s pretty much common sense. Both Emmanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks were very involved in the second of there game against Saints two weeks ago, and we should see very similar usage with them on the ground once again.

Mims has now made his second straight pro-bowl thanks to leading the league in punt return yards… and it’s looking like the coaching staff has finally realized that talent could be used elsewhere. Mims says the next goal is to make the Pro Bowl as a receiver, and after a career game recording 8 catches for 103 yards and 2 touchdowns…maybe that’s not a crazy thought.

With the Broncos still needing to win this game, and the Chiefs’ defence resting key starters, we should have a good matchup here. Chiefs secondary has struggled in the second half, and McDuffie will not be suiting up here. Mims is involved in the screen & short passing game, but he also gets his fair share of deep opportunities (with a 35+ yard reception in 5 of his last 6 games coming in). He’s a gadget+ player, and with Peyton upping his snap count and finding ways to get the ball in his hands I have confidence he stays involved after a huge game.

Even though the Broncos are 10-point favourites, I really don’t have much faith in that rushing game to control this one. The Chiefs should be competitive enough with Carson Wentz to keep the Broncos throwing the ball.