According to bookmaker odds, Middlesbrough have been involved in 3 of the top 10 ‘biggest shocks’ of the Championship season so far, with Blackburn’s recent win at the Riverside the most unlikely result of the season so far.

So, it is with a little trepidation that Middlesbrough go into the acca, but there are very strong form and circumstantial reasons for the Teessiders to be here.

Only Leeds, who Boro lost to in midweek, can get anywhere near Middlesbrough’s performance metrics this season. Michael Carrick’s team are top of the Championship for xGF, and fifth for xGA, across the season as a whole.

Other than the blip against Blackburn, when an illness tore through the camp the day before, they have been on a good run at home as well. Beating Sheffield United 1-0, and also beating Luton 5-1 and Hull 3-1 in their most recent home match.

Boro will be keen to get straight back to winning ways as well after their reality check against Leeds in midweek. Whilst not totally outclassed, they were kept at arm’s length by Leeds and probably have realised that they need to up their game to get into promotion contention.

Millwall have torn up the game plan. Whatever the reasons are for Neil Harris’ resignation this week, it cannot be ideal having an already resigned manager in the dugout, especially on a difficult away trip.

Whilst all players and Harris himself will be trying hard to get a win, subconsciously there is always a point at which players nor manager will perhaps push themselves over as that 1% might have gone. It is something that we have seen time and again with early announcements.

It is almost an autobet to get against Plymouth away from home at this stage.

Wayne Rooney’s team have been nothing short of abysmal away from home this season, and recent performances are showing decline if anything.

A home defeat against Swansea in midweek has seen Plymouth drop to 23rd in the table, and a major contributor to that is the 2 points from 10 matches picked up on the road. They have conceded 27 goals along the way, with 10 of them coming in their last 2 away games, 1-6 at Norwich and 0-4 against Bristol City.

The concern for Plymouth must be that Sheffield United are a much better outfit than either of those other teams. Albeit, Sheffield United don’t tend to score large numbers of goals in their wins, indeed, they have only scored more than 2 in 1 Championship match this season.

However, one feels as though they may make an exception against Plymouth. The Blades have scored twice or more in 10 of their 20 matches, and their last home win was a 3-0 victory over Oxford, who are similarly troubled by away matches as Plymouth.

This bet has landed in 4 of Plymouth’s last 5 away defeats this season and is worth getting behind again here.

There have to be some concerns over Narcis Pelach at Stoke. It seems like we have to say this every few months at Stoke, but something isn’t quite right with the team at the moment.

Two 1-2 defeats in a row is only bringing to bear some concerns that have been pretty consistent since Pelach was moved into the head coach role a few months ago. Stoke have consistently lost the xG battle, and, the main thing for this bet is that they concede a lot of decent chances to the opposition.

Whilst Cardiff aren’t really the best Championship to usually pick in a both teams to score bet, they should get their chances against Stoke. The Potters are 23rd in the Championship for the xGA totals this season, conceding 35.5 xG from their 20 matches, over 1.75 xG against on average.

Cardiff have actually notched in 5 of their 9 away matches, including their last 2. They continue to trail their expected goals total as well, so this should even up over the next few weeks, hopefully beginning at the bet365 Stadium.

The Black Cats needed until the 94th minute to finally find the net at home to Bristol City on Tuesday, but it was deserved after generating over 1.5 xG up to that point.

That goal also made it 4 matches in 6 that have gone over 1.5 goals, and also both teams to score. We are taking the safer approach here in case of a 2-0 or better win for either side, but neither side has achieved a win like that since Sunderland’s 2-0 win at home to Oxford in October.

Swansea are providing strong evidence for this bet as well. Their last 5 matches have been over 1.5 goals and both teams to score as well. They were away at Plymouth in midweek and around 3.5 xG was generated.

It was also the third match in a row in which Swansea created over 2 xG as well, which suggests that Luke Williams is finding his feet with Swansea’s attacking players.

Given that the over 1.5 goals line is so big, and that Swansea have created over this number on their own for the last 3 matches, as well as conceding at least once in 6 matches in a row, then it seems like a solid addition to an accumulator.

It is well-known of Wrexham’s incredible home record over quite a number of years now. That has extended in life as a League One club as they are currently ranked first in the division for home points accumulated.

The Welsh club are also unbeaten at STōK Cae Ras in league action, last suffering defeat in March. Furthermore, Phil Parkinson’s side have kept 5 home league clean sheets in succession.

Birmingham may have games in hand but Wrexham enter this weekend sitting joint-top of League One, which is some going. Sure, they’ve got the overseas backing but they deserve the upmost respect for how the team have gone about it, particularly this season.

Only Mansfield have a higher average age of squad at this level and Parkinson is certainly utilising this experience to their advantage. It means they’ll approach clashes against the likes of lowly Cambridge with maximum concentration.

They may be lowly for now in terms of sitting in the bottom-3, but Cambridge have been harder to beat recently. Garry Monk’s men have lost just twice in their last 9 league assignments, including home draws with Barnsley and Bolton.

However, focusing purely on their away record leaves a lot to be desired, especially knowing they on take a near perfect home team in Wrexham. United hold the worst away record in the league, claiming 4 out of a possible 27 points on their travels.

Pre-season title favourites Birmingham have very much put themselves in contention to fulfil those expectations. They sit 1 point off the top of the League One standings and have games in hand over Wycombe and Wrexham in 1st and 2nd respectively.

A recent wobble of losing at Shrewsbury and drawing against Northampton now appears a thing of the past as the Blues have since won 3 league games in succession. They have momentum and if they turn up, they beat every team at this level. Sometimes, even if below their top level.

Chris Davies’ side unsurprisingly are ranked first in the league for average ball possession. They average a mammoth 68% of the ball in League One fixtures, so they always have the game to suit. Bristol Rovers average the 5th-lowest in terms of ball time, so they are used to not necessarily having much possession, but facing Birmingham is another level.

It is a big pitch and the visitors will struggle to chase around hunting down the ball. It could be a long afternoon for them and may concede a few goals in the process. Rovers have the joint-8th worst defensive record in the division, plus they have conceded the 3rd-highest number of shots on their goal.

Perhaps quite telling is how Birmingham tend to win matches this season. In League One action, 11 of their 12 victories also featured over 1.5 goals in the match. Therefore, they’ve won 1-0 only once. Also, in 7 of those 12 they failed to keep a clean sheet, meaning they’d needed to record at least 2 team goals to get the win over the line.

The same may have to apply here but they have a huge plethora of attacking talent in all areas.

Two of League Two’s high scoring, promotion chasers face off in South-West London on Saturday afternoon with goals are expected.

League Two matches involving AFC Wimbledon this season average 2.56 goals per game. This average jumps to 3 goals per game when AFC Wimbledon are the home side.

AFC Wimbledon themselves average 1.67 goals per game, this average jumps to 2.11 goals per game when they are the home side.

League Two matches involving Doncaster this season average 2.63 total goals per game, while this average rises to 3.11 goals per game when Doncaster are the away side.

Doncaster themselves average 1.47 goals scored per game, rising to 1.78 goals per game away from home.

11/18 of AFC Wimbledon’s matches have ended in over 1.5 goals and 14/19 Doncaster matches have ended with over 1.5 goals.

Walsall’s away win over Port Vale last weekend saw The Saddlers leapfrog Vale and reach the top of the League Two table. They can further their automatic promotion claims with another victory this weekend when Barrow travel to face them.

Walsall are 2nd in the 5 game form table with 11 points from their last possible 15. At home in League Two this season their record reads W6 D2 L1 – they are the top scoring home side in the division.

Barrow are heading in the wrong direction and are slipping ever further away from the playoff picture. They are bottom of the 5 game form table with just 3 points from a possible 15.

Barrow are the lowest scoring away team in League Two with just 5 goals scored in 9 matches.

Barrow have won just 2 away matches in League Two this season, the last time was on the 14th September when they beat Grimsby 2-1.