Maverick Murillo absolutely loves a shot for Nottingham Forest. The Brazilian centre-back has averaged 0.83 shots per 90 this season with 61% of his 18 efforts at goal coming from outside the box. Quite simply, he’ll shoot from anywhere and his shot map is interesting reading, showing efforts from the halfway line and plenty from 35 yards out or more. He’s also had 3 shots from direct free-kicks which helps our bet.

Brighton only concede 11 shots per game, however, that average is closer to 13 on the road. Forest average 13.5 shots per home game and in this fixture last season, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side managed 18 shots and so are more than capable. Brighton’s last away game saw them allow Man Utd centre-backs De Ligt and Yoro to have a shot each and with Murillo happy to pull the trigger from range, he’s a nice price for at least 1 shot having done so in 7 of his last 8 away appearances.

Frenchman Ibrahima Konate is a regular threat from set pieces for Liverpool and having been rested for the Champions League trip to Eindhoven in midweek, will be starting again here. He’s averaged 0.76 shots per 90 this season and his last away start at Brentford saw him have 3 efforts at goal, 2 from corners and 1 from long range.

Bournemouth are struggling to defend set plays and this was no more obvious than when Forest amassed 0.58 set piece xg against them last weekend. In that game, Nikola Milenkovic had 3 shots in that game and Murillo had 1 too so there’s a clear weakness for Arne Slot to target. In fact, the Cherries have conceded the 4th most goals from set pieces in the Premier League and you can bet that’s a statistic that Liverpool will be aware of and eyeing.

Having scored 6 goals in his last 4 games in all competitions, Justin Kluivert is in the form of his life for Bournemouth. The winger has stepped up in the absence of a recognised striker for Andoni Iraola and his average of 1.49 shots on target per 90 this season makes this a standout bet. This bet would have landed in 16 of his last 17 appearances in all competitions and also in the reverse fixture at Anfield. At the Vitality Stadium this season, Kluivert has had a shot on target against Brighton, Tottenham and Arsenal and 2 against both Man City and Chelsea.

Liverpool concede just 3.32 shots on target per game which is the lowest average in the Premier League which might explain why we’re getting this price. However, they’ve had to deal with a trip to Eindhoven in midweek and in their last few away games, have looked more vulnerable. Brentford had 6 shots on target against them where the Reds needed 2 stoppage-time goals to win and they also dropped points at Forest so Bournemouth will fancy their chances of causing an upset and Kluivert looks their most likely route to one.

After a week off last week, we’re back on the James Justin shots train for Leicester’s trip to Everton. His 2 shots against Spurs last weekend mean that he’s now taken 12 shots in his last 9 Premier League matches. This is a big game in the relegation dogfight and with Leicester having climbed out of the bottom 3 with their shock victory at Spurs, they’ll be desperate to attack this game and stay there.

Back-to-back victories under David Moyes have pulled the Toffees 7 points clear of the drop zone but they have conceded 27 shots across those matches, demonstrating that they can still be attacked. They’ve given up 13.1 shots per game this season and Joel Veltman’s 2 shots from right back for Brighton against them last time out suggest that Justin can get some joy going forward himself.

The basement battle takes place at Portman Road on Saturday and with Ipswich 10 points clear of their visitors, they’ll have earmarked this game as an opportunity to keep pace with the sides above the relegation places. Centre-back Dara O’Shea has been a constant threat from set plays this season, averaging 0.66 shots per 90. At home, he’s had a shot in 7 of his 10 starts and he also had a shot in the reverse fixture.

Southampton still can’t defend set pieces, even with a 3rd centre back in the line-up under Ivan Juric. They’ve now conceded 12 goals from set plays this season which is over 20% of their total goals conceded and an average of 0.52 per game. Ipswich created 0.77 set piece xg at St Mary’s in September so you can guarantee they’ll be attacking set plays again therefore O’Shea looks like an excellent price.