7 games in the EFL are getting underway at 12:30 on Saturday and our expert has found a value bet for each of them.
They say you should never back the early kick-off, but you can safely ignore that here, as this entire acca is made up of early kick-offs. Back this acca with £10 and bag £133.50 ahead of the 3pm matches if it lands.
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Saturday’s Early Kick-Off Accumulator Tips
Bristol City are 17th in the 5-game form table with 4 points from their last possible 15. Their only win in that timeframe came against hapless Plymouth. They almost held out for 3 points at Sunderland in midweek but a 93rd-minute equaliser scuppered them.
Prior to facing Plymouth, Bristol City had gone 5 home games without a win. They are at 1.44 goals per home game but this average drops to 1.12 if you discount the match v Plymouth.
Marti Cifuentes is turning things around at QPR. Built upon solid defensive data QPR are 3rd in the 5-game form table with 11 points from a possible 15. The 5 games unbeaten has seen them rise out of the relegation zone, up to 19th with a 4-point buffer on the drop zone.
QPR have kept a clean sheet in their last 4 matches and despite their poor start to the season have conceded on average 1.11 goals per away game.
QPR can take points away from Ashton Gate on Saturday and continue their resurgence.
It’s difficult to know what to expect from 2 teams under fresh management. How much data will carry over? Will Frank Lampard and Ruben Selles rip things up and start again?
Lampard has taken charge of Coventry for 3 games now and has a win, a draw and a defeat. They look to be creating enough chances to think that goals won’t be a problem. They had 2.56 xG from 12 shots v Cardiff, 1.77 xG from 14 shots v Millwall and 2.21 xG from 17 shots v West Brom.
Selles’ first game as Hull manager was Wednesday night’s 1-1 draw at home to Watford. Hull created 1.51 xG from 13 shots. Reports are suggesting that there was a noticeable improvement and that Hull looked more cohesive.
Only West Brom (11) have drawn more Championship matches than Preston (10) this season. At Deepdale, 50% of matches have ended level.
Preston’s Championship matches this season average 2.3 goals per game. The average drops to 1.9 goals per game when Preston are the home side.
Leeds have drawn 4 out of 9 away games this season. The goal average in Leeds’ Championship matches this season is 2.81 per game. The average drops to 2.11 goals per game when Leeds are the away side.
So far this season, 14 out of 20 of Preston matches have ended with under 3.5 goals, 8 out of 10 matches at Deepdale. For Leeds it is 16 out of 20 matches that have finished with under 3.5 goals, 7 out of 9 of their away games.
The game could be tighter than 2nd v 14th suggests. Preston are unbeaten in their last 5 matches and opposing goals is the play.
Since getting thrashed by Stockport 5-0 at the start of November, Bolton have somewhat steadied their ship and pressure on manager Ian Evatt isn’t quite as vigorous.
Bolton’s league results since the Stockport humiliation are a 2-1 home win v Blackpool, where they grabbed the 3 points late in stoppage time, a 1-1 draw at a rejuvenated Cambridge and a 3-1 win v Mansfield last weekend. Things aren’t perfect and the Evatt doubters are still in the background, but there are some green shoots.
Bolton are 7th in the 5-game form table and are averaging 2 goals scored per game in that period. Bolton haven’t lost a home fixture since 14th September. A further home victory should be on the cards here.
Wigan are coming into the fixture off back-to-back league defeats to Huddersfield (away) and Leyton Orient (home). They are 13th in the 5-game form table but have only scored 3 goals in that period.
Leyton Orient are 5th in the 5-game form table with 10 points from the 15 possible. The run of form has seen them put 2 points between themselves and the relegation zone. Their last 2 wins have come against other strugglers, Bristol Rovers and Wigan. They can add a third struggler to the list by beating Burton on Saturday.
Leyton Orient have won 4 of their last 5 home games across all competitions. Confidence will be sky high after reducing Bristol Rovers and Wigan to 0.66 xG combined in their last 2 matches.
Burton have won just 2 league matches all season and, along with Shrewsbury, are cut adrift at the bottom of the League Two table. Burton are 14th in the 5-game form table and have shown some signs of life recently but their 2 recent league wins came against a woeful Shrewsbury side and an out of form Peterborough. Leyton Orient, in their current guise, present a much tougher test.
Neither Salford, nor Notts County are in form you can trust currently. Both teams have the same record over their last 5 matches of W1 D2 L2. Both teams’ only victories in their last 5 games came against Harrogate.
Salford have perfect symmetry to their league record having won, drawn and lost 6 matches. At home they’ve won 5 and lost 4. Despite only conceding 9 home goals in League Two this season, they have conceded in 6 out of 9 matches.
Notts County can usually be relied on for at least a goal. The Magpies average 1.39 goals per game in League Two this season. This average rises to 1.5 goals per game when they are the away side.
Notts County are 3rd in the division for xG created, 3rd for shots on target per 90, have scored in 8 out of 10 away League Two matches this season and they can make it 9 out of 11 here.
Tranmere are the lowest-scoring team in the entire EFL with just 12 goals scored in 18 League Two matches, an average of 0.67 goals per game.
On average, Tranmere concede 1.39 goals per game in League Two. This average drops to 1 goal per game when Tranmere are the home side. So far, 16 out of 18 of Tranmere’s League Two matches have resulted in under 3.5 goals.
Harrogate have scored 16 League Two goals this season. Just Carlisle and Tranmere have scored fewer. Harrogate average 0.84 goals per game in League Two matches with this average dropping to 0.78 goals per game when they are the away side.
On average, Harrogate concede 1.47 goals per game in League Two. This average drops to 1.33 goals per game when Harrogate are the away side. This season, 17 out of 19 of Harrogate’s League Two matches have resulted in under 3.5 goals.
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