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Roma v Lazio Bet Builder Tips
Our expert has put together two bet builders for Sunday’s Serie A clash between Roma and Lazio coming in at 3/1 and 22/1. We also have further in-depth coverage of this game in our Roma v Lazio Betting Preview.
3/1 Roma v Lazio Bet Builder Level 1
22/1 Roma v Lazio Bet Builder Level 2
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Level 1 Bet Builder Tip
Angelino to Commit 1+ Fouls
Odds: 1.50
Averaging 1 foul per game, Angelino has played across a variety of positions this season, consistently demonstrating an impressive run of fouling consistency, particularly in recent matches.
The Spanish international has sinned at least once in 8 of his last 9 league appearances, including each of the last 3. Over the course of the entire season, he’s started every league game for Roma, and excluding his injury-prompted removal against Fiorentina around the half-hour mark, has committed a foul in 13 out of 17 games.
Additionally, Isaksen is expected to start on the right of Roma’s attack which could be problematic for Angelino given the winger averages over 1.8 fouls drawn per 90.
Expect a foul and card heavy fixture here, the last 3 head-to-head league clashes have given rise to 23 yellow cards and 3 red cards, and the last 5 have averaged a high 28.4 fouls committed.
Nuno Tavares to be Fouled 1+ Times
Odds: 1.22
Since joining Lazio, Tavares has been hailed as one of the best signings of the summer, and his £6 million obligation to purchase is looking like an absolute steal. He offers most going forward and tends to be a thorn in the opposition’s thigh, resulting in him being brought down frequently and representing excellent value in the fouls-drawn market.
Tavares has won at least 1 foul in 11 of his 12 league appearances for Lazio and is averaging an impressive 2.22 fouls drawn per 90 minutes – the second most of any Lazio player, trailing only Zaccangi.
Matteo Guendouzi to be Fouled 1+ Times
Odds: 1.40
Guendouzi’s excitable and somewhat aggressive character suits this game perfectly, with the Frenchman prone to immersing himself in individual battles and duels in midfield.
This is supported by his history in clashes like these; he’s only faced Roma twice since his move to Italy, drawing 3 fouls across the pair of games including at least 1 in each. He also committed 2 fouls last time out.
He’s averaged 1.15 fouls drawn per 90 minutes this season including at least one in 6 of his most recent 7 appearances and 11 out 17 games across the entire campaign.
Valentin Castellanos to Have 1+ Shots on Target
Odds: 1.36
Castellanos has endured a strong first half of the season and has been particularly effective in the shots on target market.
He’s fired off at least 1 shot on goal in 13 of his 15 league appearances this season, averaging an impressive 1.84 shots on target per 90 minutes – the most of any player in Serie A this season.
He adapts well to the game situation and is happy to shoot from close range or long distance with 28% of his 27 shots on goal coming from outside the box – an unusually high percentage for a centre-forward.
Roma have averaged 4.28 shots on target conceded per game which certainly implies Castellanos should receive at least a few opportunities to test the opposition keeper.
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Level 2 Bet Builder Tip
Valentin Castellanos to Commit 2+ Fouls
Odds: 1.83
In addition to being an asset in some of the more offensive markets, Castellanos has also more than proven his worth in the fouls markets, averaging an impressive 1.82 fouls per 90 minutes.
He’s sinned at least twice in each of his last 6 league starts for Lazio and in 9 out of 14 starts across the entire season.
This is expected to be his first start in a Derby Della Capitale although he did come off the bench to earn 45 minutes in the away leg last season, where he committed a foul and was booked.
Alexis Saelemaekers to Commit 1+ Fouls
Odds: 1.67
Saelemaekers is another player priced surprisingly generously to commit a foul given his average of 1.09 fouls per 90. He’s sinned in 5 of his 8 appearances this season, interestingly including his 3 toughest matches against Juventus, Milan, and Atalanta,
It’s likely he’ll have a torrid run of it against Lazio given it seems he will be played out of position as a right wing-back, tasked with defending against the overlapping fullback Tavares and tricky winger, Zaccangi.
The pair are Lazio’s two most prolific foul-winners with Zaccangi averaging 3.05 fouls drawn per 90 and Tavares averaging 2.22.
Nicolo Rovella to be Shown a Card
Odds: 2.80
Nicolo Rovella represents great value in the fouls market, averaging 1.56 per 90 minutes but we think on an occasion as contentious as this, backing the Italy international to enter the book is more sensible.
In 5 of Lazio’s last 6 league clashes with Roma, they’ve seen at least 4 of their players enter the book and there’s no reason to suggest this time will be any different.
Rovella has already picked up 7 league yellow cards making him the most booked player in Serie A despite playing only 12.8 90’s. In addition to this, he’s been cautioned in a further 2 Europa League matches.
Starting on the left side of central-midfield, Rovella will have to cover both Dybala and Kone who are Roma’s two most proficient foul-drawers, averaging 3.83 and 3.15 won per 90 respectively.
Valentin Castellanos to Have 4+ Shots
Odds: 2.30
Castellanos boasts an impressive average of 4.43 shots per 90 minutes this season – the third most of any player in Serie A, having hit the threshold in 10 of his 14 league starts.
Looking beyond the Serie A, the Argentine forward fired off 4 shots in 2 of his 3 starts in the Europa League, only falling short when taken off early against Porto.
Additionally, Roma have been poor defensively this season, averaging 11.9 shots conceded per 90 minutes. 14 separate players have been able to send 4 shots Roma’s way this season, 9 of which were in Serie A, and given only two players average more shots per 90 than Castellanos, this stands out as a very real possibility.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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