Premier League Title Odds 2023-24: Pending Points Deduction Should Sink City’s Odds

Manchester City isn’t at the top of the Premier League table and yet they have the best odds to win it, again. That’s what happens when you win the league three years in a row.

But after what happened to Everton and their 10-point deduction I have to think City aren’t going to win the league no matter how well they play.

Who has the best odds to win the premier league Title?

Odds as of Dec 1

Premier League Title Odds Favorites: Manchester City

Everton received a 10-point deduction for breaching the EPL’s profitability and sustainability rules, once. City broke those rules 115 times. With how tight things are at the top of the league every year any points deduction would ruin City’s chances of winning the title.

EXCLUSIVE 🚨 Man City and the Premier League are finally set to face off in front of an independent panel amid 115 alleged breaches

The consequences could be devastating for Pep Guardiola’s side 😲

✍️ @MikeKeegan_DM | #MCFC | #PL pic.twitter.com/raWvI3alT8

— Mail Sport (@MailSport) November 30, 2023

And look, if City broke the rules 114 times more than Everton you know the points deduction isn’t going to be a small slap on the wrist.

Even without a possible points deduction, City’s defense is an issue. With 13 goals against they’ve only got the third-best defensive record. Their home form (2.67 points-per-match) is also only third-best in the league.

That’s not what you would call “league-winning” form. 

Premier League Title Odds: Best Value Bets

If you don’t want to bet the chalk and are looking for more value, here are two sides that have longer odds than the favorites and the potential for a bigger payout.

Liverpool

Speaking about home form. Liverpool – whose third in the table – are rock-steady at home. Going undefeated in their last 10 home games.

10 – Liverpool have won all 10 of their games at Anfield in all competitions this season, each by a margin of 2+ goals. They’re only the second English top-flight side ever to win 10 straight home games by 2+ goals, after Wolves from December 1938 to April 1939 (12). Perfect. pic.twitter.com/TSUFlGLxGm

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 1, 2023

They’ve got some ground to make up on City and Arsenal, but Liverpool has the easiest schedule remaining in the Premier League. That schedule includes 13 more games at Fort Anfield.

Arsenal

Arsenal is at the top of the league but only holds the second-best odds. They’ve got a decent offense and the best defense. Not to mention the second-best expected goal differential per 90.

The Gunners found themselves in exactly this situation last year. Sitting top of the league but still second fiddle to Manchester City. And last year, it got the best of them. Arsenal gave up an 8-point lead at the top of the table in April to Man City.

Mikel Arteta will not allow that to happen, again.

Last 10 Premier League Winners

Very few teams over the previous 10 years have won the Premier League title with odds below +300 right before the season began. Only Chelsea in 2016-17 and Leicester in 2015-16 did so.

No, that’s not a typo. Leicester City was a long shot to win the Premier League in 2015-16. It seemed impossible that the Foxes, who were in a relegation scrap the previous season, could win a title the next year.

Clubs With The Most Premier League Titles

Sir Alex Ferguson had a mission to knock Liverpool off its perch as the winningest club in English football. And he succeeded in dominating the game with Manchester United and pushing them to 29 titles. Neighbors City has a long way to go in matching Sir Alex’s return, but they’re making a dent.

Blackburn and Leicester are the only sides to win the Premier League and be relegated.

What Is A Premier League Futures Bet?

A futures bet is made in advance of an event. In this case, you’re looking at the odds to win the Premier League. It can be said that all bets are made on future events. Except, in this case, you can bet weeks or even months beforehand.

If you see EPL odds you like, jump on them quickly. The lines will shift as more games are played and injuries occur. To get more value on a winning bet, try to get a club at plus money (+). This isn’t to say you shouldn’t take a team at minus money (-), but you won’t get as big a payout as you would with a winning underdog.