Date: 05/09/25
Kick-off time: 19:45
Venue: Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Italy kick things off at home against Estonia in World Cup qualifying. For the Azzurri, this one feels like a must-win. They’ve already slipped up in the group, and with Norway running away at the top, Gennaro Gattuso can’t afford any early drama. Estonia, meanwhile, arrive with little pressure but a poor record against Italy. So, will it be a comfortable night in Bergamo, or can Estonia spring the unthinkable? Let’s take a look.

Italy vs Estonia Team News

Italy come into this one with a squad that’s a mix of experience and a few new faces. Riccardo Califiori is back from injury, which is a boost for the back line, while Liverpool’s new signing Giovanni Leoni could get his first minutes. Giacomo Raspadori should lead the attack after his goal against Moldova, and Andrea Cambiaso is pushing for another start after also finding the net.

Gattuso, making his debut in the dugout for a competitive game, will want a solid start. He’s sticking with many of the players who lost 3-0 to Norway in the summer, but the message is clear: no excuses this time.

As for Estonia, things aren’t looking great. Jurgen Henn’s side have lost three of their four qualifiers so far, and their only bright spot was a scrappy 3-2 win over Moldova. Erling Haaland punished them in their last outing against Norway, and defensively they’ve struggled to stay compact. They’ll rely on counter-attacks and set-pieces to keep things interesting, but the odds are stacked heavily against them.

Likely Lineups

Italy: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Buongiorno, Dimarco; Barella, Jorginho, Frattesi; Chiesa, Raspadori, Cambiaso

Estonia: Hein; Paskotsi, Mets, Tamm, Teniste; Vassiljev, Käit, Sinyavskiy; Poom, Anier, Ojamaa

Italy vs Estonia Betting Tips

This one is Italy’s to dominate. Estonia don’t travel well, and they’ve failed to score in six of their last ten competitive matches. Italy haven’t exactly been free-scoring under recent managers, but they should create plenty of chances here.

A couple of angles worth looking at:

• Italy to win & over 2.5 goals – the Azzurri rarely blow teams away, but Estonia’s defense has been leaky.
• Italy clean sheet – they’ve kept Estonia scoreless in five of their seven past meetings.
• Raspadori anytime scorer – he looks sharp and should get opportunities.

Italy vs Estonia Match Prediction

Italy will control the game, hog the ball, and push Estonia deep into their own half. Estonia may have the odd counter chance, but realistically, they’ll spend most of the night chasing shadows.

Match Prediction: Italy to win. Bet with bet365.

Italy vs Estonia Correct Score Tips & Prediction

I’m leaning towards a 3-0 Italy win. Enough attacking talent to get the job done, and Estonia’s record against Italy makes it hard to see them finding the net.

Correct Score Prediction: Italy 3-0 Estonia. Bet with bet365.

Italy vs Estonia Over & Under Goals Betting Tips

The stats point to goals but maybe not a complete rout. Italy have scored three or more in only three of their last 19 games, so while they’ll dominate, don’t expect them to hit six or seven.

Tip: Over 2.5 goals feels solid. If you fancy a bit more value, over 3.5 goals could also land if Italy are ruthless.

Over/Under Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals. Bet with bet365.

Italy vs Estonia Bet Builder Tip

Here’s a combo I like for this one:

• Italy to win
• Both teams NOT to score
• Raspadori anytime scorer
• Over 2.5 goals

That’s your safe but value-packed builder.

Bet Builder Tip: Italy to Win, BTTS No, Raspadori Anytime Scorer & Over 2.5 Goals. Bet with bet365.

Key Stats

• Italy have won all 7 of their previous meetings with Estonia.
• Estonia have failed to score in 6 of their last 10 competitive matches.
• Italy have scored 8 and conceded 11 in their last 6 games.
• Estonia have conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.

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