Retegui is very physical and deals well with aerial duels which is often how he is fouled, with Italy still struggling to devise a system which sees chances created regularly for their attackers.

Retegui has won seven fouls across his six appearances in the Nations League this season (1.64 per 90) which is a record that reflects his ability to come out on top of duels with the opposition centre back. He’s also got quite a decent record domestically this campaign, winning 24 fouls across his 27 appearances this season (1.29 per 90) showing that these numbers stay consistent over a larger sample size.

He’ll be up against Nico Schlotterbeck who can be quite aggressive himself. He’s committed nine fouls across his four appearances in the Nations League this season (2.39 per 90).

Meetings between European heavyweights are usually tight, especially when Italy are involved. With a philosophy built on solid defensive rigidity and intense tactical planning, the Italians can be one of the most stubborn sides in world football. Given that this is a two-legged tie, a low goal count in the first leg is quite likely with neither side wanting to overcommit and be out of it come the second leg.

Donnarumma is shielded by a backline that contains some of the best defenders in world football, including Alessandro Bastoni who has been phenomenal for Inter Milan this season. Luciano Spalletti isn’t the most defensive minded coach in the world but his hand may be forced here.

Aside from Mateo Retegui who has been in top form for Atalanta this season, Italy don’t have many reliable attacking options. There aren’t many goals from the wide areas with the other main goal threat, Moise Kean, unlikely to partner Retegui as a front pairing.

Julian Nagelsmann has done a decent job with this German side so far but may also find his side blunted in this first leg given the attacking options at his disposal. Generally, Germany have been quite bright when it comes to scoring goals but crucially saw nine goals across their three away games in the group compared to the 13 they managed at home.

This may also come into Nagelsmann’s thinking, his side are much stronger with the home support behind them which could lead to Germany being a bit more pragmatic in their approach with the second leg in mind.

Germany should control proceedings here, even as the away side. They are a bit further on in their development as a force on the international stage than Italy and this should show itself in the shot on target numbers.

Germany are averaging 6.5 shots on target per game in the Nations League this season, only Spain (7.2 per game) are averaging more than Julian Nagelsmann’s side. This number is slightly inflated by some of the easier assignments Germany have managed 4+ shots on target in four of their six games in the Nations League this season.

Germany are rightly the favourites to progress through to the next round over two legs and they can get off to a bright start here with at least four efforts on target with Italy likely to struggle to get a foothold in the game given the issues they are having in forward areas.

Sandro Tonali takes up a slightly different role for his country, Luciano Spalleti believes that the midfielder has plenty to offer in the final third whilst Eddie Howe has deployed him as more of a holding midfielder for Newcastle. This slight variance in instruction doesn’t seem to have an impact on Tonali’s foul record, and he’ll have a really tough task here up against Jamal Musiala.

Tonali is averaging 1.56 fouls committed per 90 across his 26 Premier League appearances this season and 1.36 fouls committed per 90 across his six Nations League appearances this campaign. The slight increase in his domestic numbers is likely due to the more defensive position he is asked to occupy but he could be tasked with managing Jamal Musiala directly here seeing as he’s Germany’s main threat.

Musiala has won six fouls across his three starts in the Nations League this season (2.03 per 90) and has won 54 fouls across his 19 starts in the Bundesliga for Bayern Munich this term (2.91 per 90).

You could argue that this German side is being structured around Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala, the duo were excellent in Germany’s European Championship campaign which was only cut short by eventual winners in Spain.

Musiala has thrived in the Nations League this season, returning five goal contributions across his four appearances in the competition – only Florian Wirtz (six) has returned more goal contributions in the Nations League for Germany this season. This highlights how central these two players are to Julian Nagelsmann’s system.

Musiala has returned 22 goals contributions across his 38 appearances for Bayern Munich this season across all competitions (17 goals, five assists). We expect a low margin game here, but Musiala could be the difference maker.

Germany were dominant in qualifying for this stage of the competition, they didn’t lose a game in the group stage, winning four of these assignments and drawing the other two. This becomes even more impressive when considering that they were in a group with Hungary and the Netherlands.

Italy also won four of their games in the group but notably conceded right goals across these games, suggesting that there is still some work to be done to strike the right balance. Their most impressive victory in the group stage came right at the start of the campaign in beating France 3-1 away from home, they’ll need to tap into some of that resolve here if they want to get something from the game against a stubborn German side.

Neither side is likely to go for the jugular here given that it is a two-legged affair, but Germany look the side more primed to progress through to the next round when looking at the tie as a whole. With that considered, Julian Nagelsmann’s side can get off to a strong start with a win or draw away from home.