Kyle Walker to Commit 1+ Fouls @ 1.91 on Paddy Power
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Gem Bet: Kyle Walker to Commit 1+ Fouls @ 1.91 (v Lazio)
Kyle Walker to commit 1+ fouls is best price at 1.91 with Paddy Power, implying a 52.4% probability, yet odds as short as 1.3 elsewhere highlight the strong value in this selection.
Walker is averaging 0.54 fouls per 90 in Serie A, committing at least 1 foul in 3 of his last 4 full 90-minute appearances.
Walker faces a tough challenge against Mattia Zaccagni, 1 of the league’s standout performers this season, with 7 Player of the Match displays.
He is also the 2nd-most fouled player in Serie A, drawing an extraordinary 3.16 fouls per 90.
Zaccagni has been fouled at least once in 31 of his 32 matches this season.
He has drawn 2 fouls in 7 matches, 3 fouls in 6 matches, and 4 or more fouls in an incredible 9 matches.
The likelihood of at least 1 foul for Walker seems considerably higher than Paddy Power’s implied 52.4% probability. While uncertainty around his fitness raises some doubt over his inclusion, if he starts, the short odds elsewhere suggest that 1.91 represents excellent value in this market.
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