English Premier League Picks: Palace Gets Back On Track

We lost all three of our bets when the Premier League was in action last week. That’s the second losing week in a row. Our record is now at 20-19 (51%) on the year and picking up 1.04 units of profit. Here’s a recap of the three picks from Matchweek 13.

English Premier League Best Bets: Matchweek 14

Pick 1: O2.5 Goals (-155)
The Game: Arsenal vs Wolves, Saturday, December 2, 10 AM ET

For Arsenal, the total has gone OVER twice in their last three games across all competitions. For Wolverhampton, the total has gone OVER in their last five games. 

With a relatively clean bill of health Arsenal has their strongest starting 11 in a long while. They should tear up the Wolves. But Gary O’Neil’s side hasn’t gone scoreless since the opening game of the year.

Pick 2: O2.5 Goals (-190) 
The Game: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa, December 3, 9 AM ET

I’m doubling down on the total here. Bournemouth have been in great form lately beating and have also seen the total go over 2.5 goals seven times in their last eight games.

For Aston Villa, the total has gone OVER 2.5 goals five times in their last seven games. 

I’ve seen books offer O3.5 at +155. The potential payout is tempting but I like the safety of 2.5 goals and -190. I believe there’s a better chance of O2.5 hitting than the 66% implied odds books are giving. 

Pick 3: Crystal Palace ML (+270)
The Game: West Ham United vs Crystal Palace, December 3, 9 AM ET

Palace are big dogs in this one at +270. But West Ham are coming off a Europa League match in Serbia. And West Ham doesn’t do well after Europa League matches.

David Moyes’s team has gone 1-1-2 after playing in mid-week. Palace might be in bad shape with back-to-back losses but they’ve been superior with a +1.4 xG over those two losses. I like their chances to get back on track this weekend.