EFL Tips | Gab Sutton
The first half of the season for Walsall has exceeded anyone’s expectations, after a midtable finish last season that hinted at progress without screaming it.
After Boxing Day’s 2-0 victory over Doncaster, when other promotion rivals in Port Vale, Crewe, Chesterfield and MK Dons all losing, and Wimbledon only managing a draw, the Saddlers are now nine points clear at the top of League Two – and, crucially, 11 clear of fourth.
Current PPG projections would say 77 points gets the Black Country outfit promotion, in which case they would just need 31 points from their remaining 25 games – in other words, the same form as today’s opponents, 18th-placed Newport – to finish the job.
The ultimate tally required might be slightly higher than 77, but it just goes to show what a great position the leaders have put themselves in as they head into 2025 – regardless of Sunday’s outcome.
Sunderland’s main strength this season has been their ability to go into difficult games against top sides, and/or with lots of injuries, be able to grind out results and avoid defeats.
In fact, the Black Cats have suffered just three losses in 23 league games: if they repeat that in the second half of the campaign, Regis Le Bris’ side will have lost five fewer than 2023-24 Leicester, who were beaten 11 times last season but still won the title with 97 points.
The Wearsiders boast one of the best midfields in the league, with Dan Neil maturing into a true leader at the base, Jobe bringing a whole new level of class and style to the number eight role, while Chris Rigg – who grabbed his fourth league goal of the campaign in a 2-2 draw at Blackburn last time out – is among the country’s most prodigious talents.
Sunderland should have too much for Stoke, who have slumped to 19th via a nine-game winless run, with five defeats in their last six.
Richard Kone might be keeping him honest, but it would take a brave person to bet against Jay Stansfield finishing 2024-25 as League One’s top goalscorer.
The former was a slightly less glamorous signing, poached from step-9 Athletic Newham of the Essex Senior League as opposed to what could rise to a £20.1M signing from Fulham, as the golden boot race beautifully captures the variety of players in our third-tier.
Ultimately, Stansfield’s quality should tell after the former Exeter striker scored 12 goals in 14 games following his Deadline Day arrival, revealed in a viral, dramatic social video from owner Tom Wagner.
Quick, strong, and lethal in front of goal, the 22-year-old belongs well, well above this level and should cause problems for midtable Blackpool, as two-time promotion-winning Birmingham boss Steve Bruce returns to St Andrews.
Peterborough have seen both teams score in more of their games than anyone else in League One, 15 of 21, while Barnsley are right behind them on that list, seeing both teams hit the net 14 times.
Posh and Tarn have been Play-Off regulars in previous seasons, but are seeing their ambitions, this time around, hamstrung by defensive vulnerabilities.
In the former case, they were exposed most crudely in Boxing Day’s 3-0 home defeat to Mansfield, so boss Darren Ferguson will be keen to add an experienced defender this January, akin to the Gabriel Zakuani, Shaun Brisley or Mark Beevers figures they’ve had in previous successful sides.
Meanwhile, Darrell Clarke’s side will be limited until local defensive lynchpin Marc Roberts returns from injury to provide the aerial presence they missed in Saturday’s 4-0 home drubbing by Leyton Orient – although the South Yorkshire outfit showed bouncebackability to score two late goals to win 2-1 at Bolton last time out.
After Bolton’s 2-0 home Lancashire Derby defeat to bitter rivals Wigan pilled the pressure on boss Ian Evatt, the subsequent goalless draw at Wycombe hinted at stabilisation – if they could have beaten Barnsley on Boxing Day.
Instead, the Trotters gave up a late one-goal lead to concede twice in the closing stages, meaning they’ll almost certainly go into 2025 outside the top six, in a season that was all about promotion.
Owner Sharon Brittan recently offered her support for Evatt, who has overseen positional progress in each of his four full seasons in charge, at a time when a significant section of fans are calling for change.
*Odds correct at the time of writing. 18+ only. GambleAware.
