We are under a week out from the beginning of the EFL League Two season, and England’s fourth tier has the honour of being the first instalment in our mammoth list of season outright predictions.
The promoted Doncaster, Port Vale, Bradford City, and Wimbledon are replaced by Crawley Town, Bristol Rovers, Cambridge United, and Shrewsbury Town, while Barnet and Oldham make the jump up following the relegation of Carlisle and Morecambe.
With next weekend’s slate of 3pm fixtures to come, Joe Casey has given us his best tips in the outright market below.
2025/26 EFL League Two outright winner prediction
Chesterfield to win League Two at 13/2
Last season’s League Two title race was typically enthralling as Walsall surrendered a 12-point lead at the top of the table and missed out on promotion completely as Doncaster swooped to take home top spot.
The fourth tier promises to be just as intriguing this term even if MK Dons have been chalked up as 7-2 favourites after bringing in Paul Warne as manager and a number of eyecatching signings.
However, they are perhaps short enough given the strength of some of the other contenders and it may pay to side with a team who suffered playoff heartache to bounce back.
Chesterfield finished with a rattle last season, losing just one of their last 13 games before losing to Walsall in the playoff semi-finals.
It was nonetheless an impressive first season back in the Football League from the Spireites after winning the National League and they look set for another strong campaign.
Only Walsall scored more goals than Paul Cook’s men last term and Lee Bonis is an intriguing addition to Chesterfield’s forward ranks.
Bonis enjoyed plenty of success in Northern Ireland before scoring 11 goals for ADO Den Haag in the Dutch second tier last season, and the 25-year-old could be a big hit in League Two.
Ryan Stirk played in all but two of Walsall’s league matches last season and has been brought in to shore up the midfield, while Zach Hemming enjoyed productive loan spells at St Mirren and Kilmarnock and should be a safe pair of hands in goal.
Will Grigg, Paddy Madden and John Fleck bring experience and the loan signings of Devan Tanton and Matt Dibley-Dias from Fulham look like solid pieces of business.
Chesterfield have all the ingredients to challenge for the title and return to the third tier for the first time since 2017.
2025/26 EFL League Two relegation & top 7 predictions
Accrington Stanley to be relegated at 4/1
With just two relegation places, the chances of being relegated from League Two are lower than in the other EFL divisions.
The consequences, however, can be worse. Dropping into the National League means losing out on increased TV revenue and competition to return to the EFL is fierce.
Morecambe and Carlisle succumbed to the drop last term and Accrington could be one of the unfortunate two this term.
Stanley finished 21st last season and owner Andy Holt announced that he would be stepping down as chairman in May. They have also closed their academy and been very quiet in the transfer market, all signs that a troubled season may be in store.
Accrington took the second-fewest shots of any team in the fourth tier last term and had the worst disciplinary record.
In addition, they won just five of their 23 home games last season – no side won fewer – and that has to be a huge concern for a side who seem certain to be scrapping for their place in the Football League this term.
Barnet to finish in the top 7 at 9/4
The gap between League Two and the National League is shrinking, and there are a number of clubs that have enjoyed success in their first season following promotion back to the Football League.
Barnet claimed over a century of points as they won the non-league title last season, when they scored 97 goals and conceded just 38.
Dean Brennan has spent the summer adding players with plenty of EFL experience to his title-winning squad, most notably Romoney Crichlow from Bradford, Forest Green midfielder Emmanuel Osadebe and goalkeeper Owen Evans from Cheltenham.
The Bees have also raided Halifax, who finished sixth in the National League, for Ryan Galvin and Adam Senior and have snapped up Scott High, who was on loan at the Shaymen from Huddersfield.
Star man Callum Stead, who scored 18 goals and registered eight assists in the National League last season, has remained at the Hive, where Barnet were unbeaten last term, and the Bees look well positioned to kick on after promotion.
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