Since Inter Milan lifted the Champions League in 2010, the trophy has been shared among just six teams: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City.
That makes Saturday’s clash between Inter and PSG a refreshing change, despite the pair being two of the last five losing finalists. Either a Serie A team returns to the top of European football for the first time in a decade-and-a-half, or PSG end their wait to be crowned Champions League winners.
Ahead of Saturday’s clash, I’ve taken a look back at previous Champions League finals to see if we can glean any betting edges. You can find our betting trends below, alongside a 26/1 tip picked out with Paddy Power.
Close games, but decisive second halves
The Champions League final is the biggest game in the European football calendar, but that doesn’t always translate into a thrilling spectacle. It’s been a trend of late to see tension impact cup finals, as has been the case in the FA Cup final and two of last weekend’s three playoff finals.
None of the previous six Champions League finals have featured both teams scoring, with four of the last five finishing 1-0. Manchester City beat Inter Milan by that scoreline in 2023, while PSG lost by the same margin against Bayern Munich in 2020.
Last season’s showpiece clash at Wembley brought a 2-0 win for Real Madrid over Borussia Dortmund, but this year’s final is a more evenly matched affair.
Each of the previous three finals have been goalless at half-time, as was PSG’s 2020 defeat. However, they tend to be followed by decisive second halves.
Only three of the last 16 Champions League finals have gone to extra-time, with the last coming in 2016.
Maiden Munich champions
Munich has hosted the European Cup final on four occasions, including three in the Champions League era. Recent finals in this city have tended to favour the underdog, but all four of those have also been won by a side that hadn’t previously won the competition.
Nottingham Forest beat Malmo to the title at the Olympiastadion in 1978, while the first ever Champions League final in 1993 was held in Munich. That saw Marseille become the first, and only, French side to lift the trophy.
The final returned to Munich just four years later, when Borussia Dortmund won their only Champions League title, while Chelsea beat Bayern Munich at their home ground in the 2012 final.
Munich hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for Italian sides, as AC Milan lost to Marseille in 1993, while Juventus were beaten by Dortmund in ’97.
Goalkeepers can be key for both sides
Some elite goalkeeping has been a big factor in recent low-scoring Champions League finals. After all, the last time both teams scored in this fixture, Keylor Navas and Loris Karius were in the opposing goalmouths.
Gregor Kobel edged out Thibaut Courtois even in defeat last year, making four saves to the Belgian’s three. In 2023, Inter Milan were more of an attacking threat than billed, as they forced Ederson into five stops, while Andre Onana made three saves.
Courtois was man of the match in 2022 thanks to an incredible nine stops, while Manuel Neuer made three saves to deny PSG in Lisbon.
The last three Champions League finals have featured a minimum of nine combined shots on target, so the goalkeepers can expect to be busy.
Both PSG and Inter Milan have been carried this far by some outstanding goalkeeping. Yann Sommer made 14 stops across the two legs against Barcelona, along with 10 saves to deny Bayern Munich. The Swiss stopper has made at least three saves in each of his five European knockout ties this season.
Gianluigi Donnarumma has made three or more saves in his last three European games, while also hitting that number in key League Phase encounters with Arsenal and Man City. The Italian is a man for the big occasion, while he has added motivation as a former AC Milan player. Inter have recorded 28 shots on target across six knockout round games, so back both keepers to make at least three stops.
Defeat is card to accept
There isn’t much consistency in terms of cards in the Champions League final across the last decade, ranging from zero in the 2019 clash between Liverpool and Tottenham, to eight bookings and a red in the 2017 showdown in Cardiff.
Referee Istvan Kovacs has averaged 2.7 bookings per game across seven Champions League assignments this season, so we’re unlikely to see a flurry of cards.
One interesting feature across the last 10 years is that seven finals have seen the losing side finish with the most cards. That’s understandable, given the tight margins across those games and the frustration of falling short on the big stage.
The previous four losing finalists – Dortmund, Inter Milan, Liverpool, and Man City – have picked up more bookings than their opponents. In the 2020 edition, a 94th-minute caution for Thomas Muller brought Bayern level with PSG.
Pairing a side to lift the trophy and their opponents to be shown the most cards holds plenty of appeal.
UCL Trends Treble
Draw/PSG HT/FT, Both goalkeepers to make 3+ saves, Inter most cards @ 26/1
We’re expecting a close first-half, with PSG continuing the streak of maiden European Cup winners in Munich. The two goalkeepers are backed to make 3+ saves each, while Inter Milan can play sore losers by beating their opponents in the card count.
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