The field has been whittled down to four across the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League.
Ahead of the semi-finals getting underway later this month, I’ve got a 21/1 treble backing the finalists across the three competitions.
UEFA finalists treble
Champions League – Arsenal & Inter
I’m going with the two underdogs in the Champions League semis, as they look more trustworthy defensively despite some attacking limitations.
PSG have been the story of the Champions League campaign, but their shaky second leg against Aston Villa raises some issues. We saw how blunt the French outfit could be in their 1-0 home loss to Liverpool earlier in the knockout stages.
PSG started the League Phase campaign with one win in five, a start which saw them lose to nil against Arsenal and Bayern Munich. They were also beaten 2-1 at home by Atletico Madrid.
Luis Enrique’s side have won seven of their last nine in Europe, but they closed the League Phase with a kind run. PSG also caught Liverpool during two of their worst displays of the season.
The way that Arsenal contained Real Madrid over two legs points to them having reached a level of maturity that can take them to the final. For all the promise this PSG side have shown, they remain a young group.
The French champions have tended to struggle in this competition once their domestic campaign eased up over the years. Having secured the title, PSG will feel the pressure building as focus turns to their semi-final. They fell short with home and away defeats to nil against Borussia Dortmund at this stage last year, so I like Arsenal’s chances across the two legs.
In the other semi, Inter Milan’s experience and defensive nous make them the more reliable side. Barcelona have been fantastic this term, but they have been handed two kind clashes with Benfica and Dortmund. Given the mess they got into in Germany in the second-leg, this ruthless Inter side look well-placed to cause them problems.
The potential absence of Robert Lewandowski is a factor here, as is Inter’s formidable home record in the competition.
Europa League – Athletic & Spurs
I’ve sided with Athletic Bilbao in this competition from the start, so I’m taking them to secure a home final by seeing off Manchester United.
Spanish sides have a brilliant record in this competition and there’s an argument to be made that Athletic are among the most impressive teams La Liga has sent into the Europa League in recent years.
Athletic are fourth in La Liga, while last season’s Copa del Rey win gave them vital experience in cup competitions. They’re strong enough not to be leaning heavily on Euro 2024 star Nico Williams, but these two games could really put him in the shop window ahead of the summer transfer window.
This is a real clash of styles, as Athletic’s Basque-only policy means this is a side which has gradually risen. Compare that to a bloated, expensive United squad that progressed thanks to Harry Maguire playing as a makeshift centre-forward. The cohesion and quality of the Spanish outfit should make the difference.
The other semi-final has the potential to be some of the most blistering football you’ll ever see. Tottenham’s style under Ange Postecoglou is well-known, but Bodo Glimt finished the League Phase with an xG of 13.4 and an xG against of 13.7 across eight games.
The Norwegian side have made a remarkable run to the last four despite conceding 11.7 xG across their six knockout ties. The hope is that we get a tie with both sides throwing caution to the wind, but the stakes may be too high for Tottenham.
As great as Bodo Glimt’s run has been, Spurs have shown a measure of control in their knockout games. That, along with the gulf in resources between the teams, should see Spurs edge it.
Conference League – Real Betis
The double isn’t available in the Conference League, likely because Chelsea are as short as 1/20 to win their semi-final.
The clash between Real Betis and Fiorentina on the other side of the draw is more intriguing. La Viola are bidding to make a third straight Conference League final, having lost the previous two against West Ham and Olympiakos.
However, they have given away far too many chances in the previous rounds to back them to progress. Slovenian side Celje had 12 shots in each leg in the last round. The underdogs pulled the tie back to 3-3 in the second leg, taking a 2-1 lead in Florence after 65 minutes.
The Italian outfit progressed to the last eight after a 5-4 aggregate win over Panathinaikos, so Betis could be too much for them.
Betis are in the mix for a Champions League spot in La Liga, while they’ve made the last four without much concern. They controlled matters home and away against Jagiellonia Bialystok, while they eliminated Vitoria Guimaraes 6-2 in the last 16.
Fiorentina have allowed their opponents to have the ball in Europe this season and they’ve struggled to contain weaker sides. Betis will be happy to dominate possession and search for openings, while they’ll be better organised when Fiorentina look to counter. The Spanish side have let in only one counter-attacking goal in La Liga this term, that leaves them well-placed to withstand la Viola and make the final.
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