It is a surprise to see this price at odds against, and it will surely go off an odds-on price by the time of kick-off so it is worth getting ahead of the price move now.

Wimbledon are on the verge of the very competitive automatic promotion places, as they have been for many weeks now, and they know that they need to keep up the pace to try and solidify one of those top three places.

The main supporting evidence for betting this home win now is the history of Wimbledon’s prices in League Two home matches. They went off at 1.67 against Cheltenham on the 11th, a team with much better form and overall position than Barrow. The Dons did lose that match, which could inform a slight rating change, but surely not enough to warrant an odds-against price.

Wimbledon were 2.38 vs Notts County, but that is against a fellow promotion chaser, and they won that match 2-0. They went off 1.7 vs Bromley, 1.8 vs Salford, and 1.8 vs Crewe in consecutive matches before that as well. There is no obvious reason to expect that they shouldn’t be a similar price against Barrow.

Wimbledon have the 3rd best home record in the competition, winning 39 points from 19 matches so far. Barrow actually have the 3rd worst home record, with only 13 points from 19 away matches.

Barrow did pull off a shock away win at Notts County recently, but County were 1.65 to win that day with Barrow 5.0. They are currently priced at 3.8, and we know that Wimbledon beat Notts County themselves only last week.

Barrow are three games unbeaten, which will play into the initial pricing here, but in all other aspects the prices lookout by a decent level of magnitude.

The final point to make is that this fixture will fit nicely into the home acca theory. There will be many punters playing in League One and League Two this weekend who may not be as informed as usual due to the international break. A home acca will be a popular bet, especially with the number of home favourites this week, so one would expect this price to contract as a result of the liabilities built up on it from a bookmaker’s perspective.

This is a price play based on both Gateshead and Tamworth’s recent form.

Tamworth are six unbeaten in the National League, which includes consecutive away wins at Ebbsfleet and most recently at Dagenham & Redbridge. Whilst Gateshead represent a big step up from those opponents, Tamworth have really improved as the season has progressed.

Also, Gateshead’s form has been really poor recently. They are five without a win, losing the last three of those, including a loss at home to Maidenhead United last week.

Gateshead were 1.5 for that match, so whilst their price has drifted for this match to a current 1.7, this would be the expected level of price move to play a more accomplished outfit in Tamworth in comparison to struggling Maidenhead. Therefore, there should be more acquiescence to the relative form of both teams here.

There is room for this price to move more towards Tamworth, which should change the Draw/Win Double Chance for the visitors to even money or below by kick-off. This is currently the biggest price that Tamworth have been for a match since gameweek 25 when they went to Solihull Moors, since then they have lost only three times in the league.

This looked a standout price in the National League this weekend.

As mentioned in the Wimbledon bet, with Premier League and Championship matches taking a back seat due to the international break, there will be more action in the lower leagues. Many punters will look at Barnet’s seven wins in a row, and 13 games unbeaten and decide that they are a good thing at even money for another.

This is also a 17:30 TV kick-off, so, again more eyes will be on this match than usual, which should lead to more betting action than would often be expected.

Barnet are close to securing their return to the EFL. There will be motivation to make that mathematically certain as soon as possible, and whilst Altrincham are, themselves, fighting for a play-off berth, there shouldn’t be much weight given to Altrincham in the pricing because of Barnet being so far clear at the top.

Alty are in poor form as well. They suffered a poor home defeat last weekend against Aldershot, which added to two away defeats leading into that match at Rochdale and Southend United. They also lost at home to Fylde recently so one has to go back to 8th February and a home win against struggling Braintree for their last National League home win.

We know about Barnet’s form in comparison, which is what makes the 2.0 an appealing bet. They went off 1.48 against Woking in their last away match, and whilst the pricing at Oldham and Rochdale was 2.1 and 2.05 respectively, Barnet won both matches, 3-0 and 4-0 no less, and against teams that would be rated higher than Altrincham. One would expect that level of form and dominance to enact a greater level of price change for this match.

This price is more likely to be around 1.8 by kick-off, so it is another case of backing now to give yourself a price boost by kick-off.

A value bet is a bet in which the odds, and implied probability, of the outcome have been underestimated by the bookmaker. For example, if you can justify that there is a 60% chance (1.67 odds) that Man Utd win but the bookie’s odds are at 2.0 (50% chance) then you have found value.

Value betting is a betting strategy that increases your chances of turning a profit, beating the bookmaker, in the long term. Winning a bet at odds of 1.80 that is priced elsewhere, or goes off, at 1.60 is the way to go – finding overpriced bets with regularity.