Reading have long been known as a team that favours playing at home, and whilst a part of that remains the case, it seems as though they are being underrated by layers in their away games.

The same thing happened last week when the Royals travelled to Wigan and the hosts went off at odds-on, despite being in poor form themselves. Reading won the game at a price of 3.75, and proved that they are capable of taking down a poor side.

Crawley have had flashes and moments of inspiration this season, but the hard truth is that they find themselves in 23rd, with one win in seven, and a really disappointing 0-2 defeat at home to Cambridge last time out.

Crawley have won 17 points from 16 home matches, the 22nd best record in League One. Reading are outsiders for the play-offs but are still clearly a higher performing team than Crawley over any sample size that one would like to take over the season. Reading have taken 18 points from 17 away matches, which is good enough for 15th in the away league table.

It seems like, given current prices, that either the bookmakers believe that the home/away advantage is particularly strong for this fixture, or that there actually isn’t much difference in the ability of the teams, both arguments that can be refuted.

Whilst Reading do have a really high xGA for the season, 1 xG higher than Crawley’s, the Royals are 8 xG clear on the other side of the equation, and this is before actual results and league table position are taken into account.

From a price perspective, Reading are currently almost the exact price that they went off against Burton and Cambridge a few weeks ago. The difference here is that Reading come into this match off the back of an away win and Crawley have just lost to Cambridge, who Reading beat 3-1 away from home.

Gillingham’s win over Morecambe last weekend will undoubtedly have eased some worries over a potential shock relegation into the National League.

However, a narrow and nervy 1-0 over a team that are really struggling for any points is not a massively impressive case to put up against this Bradford team.

The Bantams are charging towards automatic promotion, and are now odds-on to achieve that goal. They have won three in a row in the league and are unbeaten in six. This includes recent away wins at Salford last time out and Bromley before that.

Bradford’s prices for those away matches help inform the bet on them here. They went off at 2.20 v Salford, and 2.38 at Bromley, both teams ranked much higher than Gillingham. Whilst Bradford’s 2.10 current price looks to be a pattern of them shortening, logic would dictate that them winning those matches, plus the lack of form demonstrated by Gillingham, should see a shorter price for Bradford here.

The price play is also backed up on the Gillingham side. Gills played Notts County on gameweek 30 and County went off at 1.95 for the win. This is what could very likely happen here with Bradford.

On Tuesday Bradford are at home to Cheltenham, and Gillingham are at Newport. A Bradford win would put them on four wins in a row and likely raise their profile in terms of their form, so now is the time to back them for the weekend.

It was surprising to see that Over 2.5 goals was favourite in this market. This match has all the markings of a tense encounter between two teams that are badly out-of-form and need some kind of positive result from anywhere.

Morecambe’s run of results in particular would suggest that under 2.5 goals looks a more likely proposition. They have gone 0-1, 0-2, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2 in their last five matches. Over a third of their away matches have ended 1-0 to their hosts.

MK Dons, whilst undoubtedly looking at this match as a potential route to get back to winning ways, have been struggling in front of goal as well. They haven’t managed to score twice in a match since January 28th, six matches ago, and they have drawn a blank in their last two league matches.

Four out of MK Dons’ last five League Two matches have also ended under 2.5 goals, so, between them nine of their last 10 matches have finished under 2.5 goals.

Whilst there isn’t much in the prices, it would be expected that the money will come for the outsider of the market here given the form of the two sides. Betting on the unders at this stage should give us the right position going into the match at kick-off.

A value bet is a bet in which the odds, and implied probability, of the outcome have been underestimated by the bookmaker. For example, if you can justify that there is a 60% chance (1.67 odds) that Man Utd win but the bookie’s odds are at 2.0 (50% chance) then you have found value.

Value betting is a betting strategy that increases your chances of turning a profit, beating the bookmaker, in the long term. Winning a bet at odds of 1.80 that is priced elsewhere, or goes off, at 1.60 is the way to go – finding overpriced bets with regularity.