Broncos WR Courtland Sutton recorded 20 contested catches this season – tied for third-most in the NFL. He’s one of those guys you can reliably trust on downfield passes, and with the Broncos coming in as big underdogs that will need to be a part of the gameplan.

Even with a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix, Sean Payton and the Broncos have still been one of the more aggressive downfield passing teams in the NFL, with the second most 20+ yard passes and third most completions. He’s averaging 8.8 targets per game over his last 10 starts, and has a very high floor in terms of usage.

Courtland Sutton accounted for a team-high 45.7% of downfield targets,
the 2nd-highest downfield target share of any receiver in the NFL. While Marvin Mims has been good, most of his work has been close to the line of scrimmage and dependent on YAC. Outside of that, it’s a rookie duo of Franklin and Vele who are both rotational receivers, but not serious usage threats.

Sutton has really looked great this year, and with this first playoff appearance, I expect him to be the focal point of the offense. The rushing game has been a bit of a mess, and it’s hard to depend on any single back to post more than 40 rush yards. While Sutton is live in any gamescipt, being almost 10-point dogs should create a pass-heavy gameplan.

There is plenty of value on Reed’s rushing and receiving props. Jayden Reed had a fantastic start to the season for the Packers but has slowed down a bit in the second half leading to some discounted numbers.

The biggest reason we’ve seen Reed slow down is because of their run-first mindset behind Josh Jacobs, but they get a brutal matchup against the Eagles to contain the run at an extremely high level. Matt LaFleur is one of the best coaches in football, and he will need to find ways to keep this Eagles’ defense off balance. There will be plenty of Jacobs, but getting guys like Reed involved in jet sweeps and pitch plays will be a good way to keep them guessing.

When Jayden Reed faced the Eagles in the first game of the season, he posted 4 catches for 136 yards and a touchdown, along with an additional 33 yards rushing. They have already used him creatively in the same matchup, and with the season on the line, I would continue to expect some creative looks. The Packers are 4.5-point underdogs, and the game script should be ripe for the Packers to empty the playbook against a strong Eagles defense.

Brian Robinson took care of business against easier teams early in the season but has struggled more recently. When they faced the Eagles he posted one of the worst games of his career, with 2 fumbles and only 24 rushing yards. He had a solid game against the Falcons, but couldn’t get anything going last week against the Cowboys. With his ball security problems, any early problems could lead to more touches for the backfield.

The matchup isn’t easy either with the Buccaneers allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards of any team in the NFL. They are much weaker in the secondary, dealing with multiple injuries and allowing the 7th most passing yards. Vita Vea is one of the best interior linemen in the league, and Washington will likely be tested through the air.

Austin Ekeler returned last week after dealing with an injury, he immediately out-snapped Brian Robinson and took over the starting job. Washington’s biggest problem in the second half of the season was getting off to slow starts in the first half, and Ekelers’ receiving skill set makes him more appealing in negative gamescripts. I think his stock continues to rise, and Robinson loses touches in both the rushing and receiving game.