“Xavier Worthy is coming in with some good momentum after recording 7 catches for 65 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Texans. He’s now seen 11+ targets in back-to-back games, and 5+ receptions in 4 straight games. The rookie is looking more and more comfortable in this system, and I don’t think his usage is going anywhere. Going against a great Steelers pass rush, the Chiefs are going to have to get the ball out quickly, I think that will benefit Xavier Worhy greatly. He’s a great short-yardage guy and highly involved in the screen game.

Patrick Mahomes clearly isn’t at 100% right now, so maintaining an efficient short passing game will be key to keeping him out of trouble. We saw him extend some plays on the ground last week, but he also did come up limping at times, so I do think they will want to limit his rushing as much as possible. When you think about who benefits the most from designed short passing, Xavier Worthy instantly comes to mind. Sure he’s an incredibly fast receiver that will get some deep shots, but he’s getting designed screens and touches around the line of scrimmage.”

“The Holiday season is in full effect, and we have plenty of touchdown scorers to help stock your stuffing. When I check under the tree this year, a couple presents are going to be credited to Xavier Worthy this season, because the rookie has been cashing tickets all year long. Christmas feels like the perfect time to back the rookie, because while some guys slow down later in the season, Worthy has just been getting started. Naturally any rookie would get out to a slow start coming into an offense that just won a Super Bowl, but Worthy is now coming in off of back to back 11+ target games. He’s constantly used in the short-passing game, and with Patrick Mahomes banged up I think we see even more usage there.

He’s been highly involved in those 11 target games, scoring a touchdown in both of them. If you’ve read this article all year you’ll know he also has a trait I am always looking for, dual threat ability. While Worthy is primarily used and priced like a wide receiver, he has 3 carries in each of his last two games, with 1 on redzone carry in each. Andy Reid has always been known for his creative redzone packages, and using guys like Mahomes and Kelce as distractions to free up other guys has been a staple. Getting this kind of combined rushing and receiving usage is elite, and I love this price for him to score.”

“When you think of the kind of wide receivers that are stylistically built to beat the Ravens, Nico Collins should definitely be on that list. Baltimore has had one lingering problem all year, they can’t spot explosive plays through the air. They have one of the best run defences in football which has forced teams to switch to the pass against them at one of the highest rates in the NFL.

Naturally it’s best to take the path of least resistance against a strong D-line and linebacker core, and I think we see Stroud become more aggressive through the air. He’s been criticised heavily for his play this season, and locking in with his #1 weapon will be huge here.

The other big factor here is the injury to Tank Dell. They have now lost both Stefon Gillmore and Tank Dell this season, leaving just Collins as the remaining starter. They even lost WR3 John Metchie last game, leaving them using 50-yard old Robert Woods again.

The lack of talent in this wide receiver room is apparent, and Nico Collins should see an increase in his already league leading target share. He already has a 30% target share on 3.15 yards per route run, we can likely expect 10+ target volume in this one.”

“While CJ Stroud may not benefit from designed quarterback rushing plays, his opponent Lamar Jackson definitely will. Jackson is truly one of the best duel threat quarterbacks in the NFL, and after not showing off his legs as much last week I think we see a huge game on the ground.

While I think Derrick Henry will be the guy to punch in the touchdown, I think Lamar Jackson is the guy to bring them down the field. The Texans have been good at limiting opposing packs, especially hitting them before the line of scrimmage ranking top 8 in stuff rate. This should force the Ravens to get creative on the ground, and Lamar can be used in a variety of RPO packages. Jackson is second in the NFL in 10+ yard rushes only behind Saquon Barkley, he can create an explosive play out of thin air.

The Texans D-line is one of the best in the NFL, especially in terms of quick pressure ranking 4th in the NFL. When you get to the quarterback that quickly it will force them to make snap decisions and for Lamar that involves carrying the ball. While he missed against the Steelers, they practice with the closest athletic replacement possible in Justin Fields, and have an already strong defense.

He was over the two matchups before that, and I think we see that heavy volume return against a Texans team who struggles to stop mobile quarterbacks.”