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Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 17 is upon us and we’ve got two expertly crafted Bet Builders for Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers, with Level 1 coming in at 3/1 and Level 2 priced at 10/1.
3/1 Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers Bet Builder Level 1
10/1 Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers Bet Builder Level 2
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Level 1 Bet Builder Tip
Isiah Pacheco Under 41.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: 1.83
While Isiah Pacheco is back in the lineup, he is definitely not back to his usual workload. We are used to seeing him in the 15+ carry, 4+ target range, but that hasn’t been the case since returning. Even though Kareem Hunt has not been efficient this season, this coaching staff clearly trusts him in high-leverage situations. Over the last two games both Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco have 24 carries each, so we are talking about a split backfield. Additionally, Samaje Perine is involved in pass-catching situations and steals some third-down snaps.
The other big factor here is the big mismatch in the trenches. The Chiefs have dealt with injuries on their offensive line all season, and they face a brutal matchup against Watt, Highsmith, and Herbig. This is a good buy-low opportunity on a Steelers rush defense that just had to face the two best running backs in the NFL in Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Isiah Pacheco has posted 2.5 and 2.9 yards per carry in his first two games back, I don’t trust his efficiency in this matchup.
Najee Harris Under 43.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: 1.83
Speaking of inefficient running backs, Najee Harris is a name that comes to mind. While he’s been one of the highest-volume backs in the NFL, with 238 carries (5th most) he’s only managed to average 3.9 yards per carry. The problem is when the volume isn’t on his side, which has been the case for the last two weeks. In back-to-back losses, Najee has only seen 6 and 9 carries against the Ravens and Eagles. During those two games, his backfield counterpart Jaylen Warren has posted 16 carries with an additional 6 catches through the air. People around Pittsburg have been calling for more involvement from Warren for ages, and it’s looking like it’s finally happening.
In addition to the recent surge in usage for Warren, it just makes sense that he would see more usage in a game where the Steelers are underdogs. While Harris is a solid pass catcher, that is clearly Warren’s role, and they even use Patterson in certain packages. The Chiefs’ pass defense has struggled but their run defense has remained strong, if the Steelers have any hope it will come through the air.
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Level 2 Bet Builder Tip
Calvin Austin III Anytime Touchdown
Odds: 6.0
Calvin Austin is one of the more fun anytime touchdown targets, because of his unique usage. While he started out as more of a gadget guy with limited usage, he’s now earned the role of full-time starting receiver. He can play both inside or outside and has a good mix of downfield and short-yardage routes. He has two touchdowns over his last 5 games but was just tackled inside the 5-yard line last game. He constantly generates chunk plays down the field, posting 44 and 31-yard catches in each of his last two games, and we know Russell Wilson will chunk the ball down the field. Going against a pass funnel Chief’s defence, we should get some additional red zone dropbacks.
One of the big difference makers here will be the health of George Pickens. Obviously turning around on a short week is not ideal, and if he plays it could be in a more limited capacity. Calvin Austin has proven his worth as a receiver without Pickens, but if he does play that can create some 1v1 opportunities against the Chiefs’ weaker corners. The Chiefs are known for struggling against WR2’s and I think Austin could be the guy to take advantage. The Steelers need the downfield passing game to be working to have any chance at winning this one, I think Austin could benefit.
Xavier Worthy 5+ Receptions
Odds: 2.10
Xavier Worthy is coming in with some good momentum after recording 7 catches for 65 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Texans. He’s now seen 11+ targets in back-to-back games, and 5+ receptions in 4 straight games. The rookie is looking more and more comfortable in this system, and I don’t think his usage is going anywhere. Going against a great Steelers pass rush, the Chiefs are going to have to get the ball out quickly, I think that will benefit Xavier Worhy greatly. He’s a great short-yardage guy and highly involved in the screen game.
Patrick Mahomes clearly isn’t at 100% right now, so maintaining an efficient short passing game will be key to keeping him out of trouble. We saw him extend some plays on the ground last week, but he also did come up limping at times, so I do think they will want to limit his rushing as much as possible. When you think about who benefits the most from designed short passing, Xavier Worthy instantly comes to mind. Sure he’s an incredibly fast receiver that will get some deep shots, but he’s getting designed screens and touches around the line of scrimmage.
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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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